Information, Electoral Equilibria, and the Democratic Ideal

A considerable literature argues that poor information among voters produces an elitist or class bias in public policy. Owing to the complexity of public issues and their generally slight impact on outcomes, citizens fail to invest in information, and in their voting decisions rely instead on cues such as party labels, the opinions of friends, and interest group endorsements. As a result, political entrepreneurs are unable to mobilize effectively the general electorate to vote in their own self-interest. This essay takes issue with some theoretical premises of this argument. Using a rational expectations approach to modeling elections with incomplete information, we show first that citizens require only very general information to vote correctly. Second, this information can be deduced from exactly those cues that are commonly interpreted as substitutes for "voting on the issues." Finally, even if interest groups attempt to influence candidate positions with money, equilibria exist to the election game that are identical to what occurs under full information, provided some strong symmetry conditions hold with regards to the resources of such groups. Thus, popular control of public policy is not precluded per se by lower levels of voter information about the candidates' positions on issues.

[1]  R. McKelvey,et al.  Elections with limited information: A multidimensional model , 1987 .

[2]  Kenneth C. Williams,et al.  Retrospective voting: An experimental study , 1987 .

[3]  Peter C. Ordeshook,et al.  Sequential elections with limited information , 1985 .

[4]  Peter C. Ordeshook,et al.  Elections with limited information: A fulfilled expectations model using contemporaneous poll and endorsement data as information sources , 1985 .

[5]  R. McKelvey,et al.  Rational expectations in elections: some experimental results based on a multidimensional model , 1984 .

[6]  Melvin J. Hinich,et al.  The Spatial Theory Of Voting , 1984 .

[7]  James H. Kuklinski,et al.  Citizen Knowledge and Choices on the Complex Issue of Nuclear Energy , 1982 .

[8]  Sanford J. Grossman An Introduction to the Theory of Rational Expectations Under Asymmetric Information , 1981 .

[9]  Morris P. Fiorina,et al.  Retrospective voting in American national elections , 1981 .

[10]  Benjamin I. Page Choices and echoes in Presidential elections , 1978 .

[11]  David M. Kreps A note on "fulfilled expectations" equilibria , 1977 .

[12]  John W. Gorman,et al.  Comment: What Have You Done for Me Lately? Toward An Investment Theory of Voting , 1976, American Political Science Review.

[13]  Arthur H. Miller,et al.  A Majority Party in Disarray: Policy Polarization in the 1972 Election , 1976, American Political Science Review.

[14]  Michael Boss Economic theory of democracy , 1974 .

[15]  John L. Sullivan,et al.  Electoral Choice and Popular Control of Public Policy: The Case of the 1966 House Elections , 1972, American Political Science Review.

[16]  W. Hawley Protest in City Politics: Rent Strikes, Housing, and the Power of the Poor. By Lipsky Michael. (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1970. Pp. 214. $5.95.) , 1970, American Political Science Review.

[17]  M. Hinich,et al.  An Expository Development of a Mathematical Model of the Electoral Process , 1970, American Political Science Review.

[18]  J. Muth Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements , 1961 .

[19]  Angus Campbell,et al.  The American voter , 1960 .