An integrated QMU approach to structural reliability assessment based on evidence theory and kriging model with adaptive sampling

Abstract The objective of this paper is to propose an implementation framework of the quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) calculation for reliability and safety assessment of high-consequence systems in the presence of mixed (aleatory and epistemic) uncertainties. The aleatory and epistemic uncertainties are represented by a probability distribution and the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence (DSTE), respectively. This study focuses on the need to alleviate the computational cost in terms of mixed uncertainties propagation, which is the core of the QMU process. The kriging model together with an adaptive sampling method is tailored to predict the responses of a system simulation model. The confidence factor (CF) for the QMU calculation is then evaluated by integrating the surrogate model and the DSTE analysis. The proposed approach is demonstrated by a numerical example to examine the computational efficiency. Finally, the proposed QMU framework is demonstrated via a simulation-based structural analysis of a pressure vessel with corrosion damage.

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