HAZARD-BASED DURATION MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATION TO TRANSPORT ANALYSIS.

A number of transport‐related phenomena deal with a time element that defines the duration until an event's occurrence. Examples include the time that transpires until a trip is made, the length of time a commuter delays a trip departure to avoid traffic congestion, and the time until a newly introduced mode is used. Hazard‐based duration models, which have enjoyed widespread use in a number of non‐transport fields (e.g. economics, biostatistics), are an obvious choice for modelling such transport phenomena. The objective of this paper is to present hazard‐based models, in a general way, to individuals interested in transport problems. In so doing, every effort is made to avoid a jargon‐laden approach that typifies current articles and texts on the subject. It is hoped that such a presentation, along with an overview of existing transport applications of such models, will lead to an increased use of hazard‐based duration models in transport.

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