CONJUNCTIVE USE MANAGEMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY IN AQUIFER PARAMETERS

Conjunctive use operation policies play a vital role in the sustainability of water resources and their optimal allocation. To be realistic conditions of real water resource system should be considered in simulation and derivation of operating rules of real-world water resource system. In this research, the combined fuzzy logic and direct search optimization technique is used to account for the uncertainty associated with parameters affecting groundwater table level fluctuations. These parameters include specific yields and inflow recharge and outflow discharge from the aquifer, which are typically uncertain. A membership function is determined for each parameter using hydrogeologic and piezometric data. For each membership value ( α level cut), the corresponding intervals are determined. These intervals are considered as constraints on the membership value of the groundwater table level fluctuations in the optimization model. The process is repeated for other α level cuts to obtain the fuzzy number. For the uncertainty influencing the water demands, a conjunctive use model with water resources constraints is developed. Using this model, the priorities for the different zones and their optimal allocations are determined. The results show that the better the real conditions are reflected in the conjunctive use model, the better will the system be reliably capable of handling the water demands. The results of the proposed model also indicate that it present reliable allocations compared to the static conventional models and that it performs more desirably and practically in allocating supplies to water demands as it duly includes the opinions of the decision-makers involved.