The Balance of Payments Offset to Monetary Policy: Monetarist, Portfolio Balance, and Keynesian Estimates for Mexico and Venezuela

Three balance-of-payments equations are specified and estimated for Mexico and Venezuela. While a large offset is found for Venezuela, there is no evidence of a significant offset for Mexico in the 1970s. However, it is shown that from 1951 to 1970, the offset was close to minus one, suggesting there was structural change in the 1970s. The estimated offset for Venezuela in the Keynesian equation is smaller than that in the monetarist equation, supporting arguments that the latter is biased toward minus one. However, the long-run offset is minus one in accord ance with both approaches. Copyright 1986 by Ohio State University Press.