Review and Conclusions

A central preoccupation for any student of the adjustment crisis in Latin America must surely be the prospect for the next few years. In this chapter we move towards an assessment of such prospects in the final section, attempting to integrate what we know of the global scenario with the insights the studies here have offered on the options and constraints in individual situations. With this aim in view we first review the country studies, seeking particularly to define the insights they give as to the consequences of different policy choices faced with the need to adjust, and the interplay between such policy choices and longer-run options and needs. The country experiences with adjustment lead us next to review certain common themes (the role of the IMF, the fiscal deficit and capital flight). Since where the burden of the crisis falls is crucial to understanding the evolution of options, necessities and policy choices, we then discuss distributional issues. The final section comprises our tentative appraisal of the prospects for the late 1980s.