Resource use and technological progress in agriculture: a dynamic general equilibrium analysis

We analyze the global effects of economic and population growth and the impact of a slowdown in agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) on agriculture and forest resources using a dynamic multi-region computable general equilibrium model with land use and cover detail. Given the current consensus about the growth of the world economy, our results suggest that food security will not be threatened and agricultural activities will not encroach on forest resources over the next decade. A slowdown in agricultural TFP growth might lead to higher crop prices in all regions, with South East Asia facing the steepest increases. A slowdown in agricultural TFP growth also might be accompanied by higher conversion rates of forestland to farmland as well as by greater environmental or ecological damages on the remaining forestland.

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