Sensitivity Analysis of CLIMEX Parameters in Modeling Potential Distribution of Phoenix dactylifera L.

Using CLIMEX and the Taguchi Method, a process-based niche model was developed to estimate potential distributions of Phoenix dactylifera L. (date palm), an economically important crop in many counties. Development of the model was based on both its native and invasive distribution and validation was carried out in terms of its extensive distribution in Iran. To identify model parameters having greatest influence on distribution of date palm, a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Changes in suitability were established by mapping of regions where the estimated distribution changed with parameter alterations. This facilitated the assessment of certain areas in Iran where parameter modifications impacted the most, particularly in relation to suitable and highly suitable locations. Parameter sensitivities were also evaluated by the calculation of area changes within the suitable and highly suitable categories. The low temperature limit (DV2), high temperature limit (DV3), upper optimal temperature (SM2) and high soil moisture limit (SM3) had the greatest impact on sensitivity, while other parameters showed relatively less sensitivity or were insensitive to change. For an accurate fit in species distribution models, highly sensitive parameters require more extensive research and data collection methods. Results of this study demonstrate a more cost effective method for developing date palm distribution models, an integral element in species management, and may prove useful for streamlining requirements for data collection in potential distribution modeling for other species as well.

[1]  Abdelouahhab Zaid,et al.  Date palm cultivation. , 1999 .

[2]  L. Kumar,et al.  Sensitivity Analysis of CLIMEX Parameters in Modelling Potential Distribution of Lantana camara L. , 2012, PloS one.

[3]  Chris J. Johnson,et al.  Sensitivity of species-distribution models to error, bias, and model design: An application to resource selection functions for woodland caribou , 2008 .

[4]  R. Sutherst,et al.  A Climate Model of the Red Imported Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae): Implications for Invasion of New Regions, Particularly Oceania , 2005 .

[5]  L. Kumar,et al.  Risk Levels of Invasive Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. in Areas Suitable for Date Palm (Phoenix dactylifera) Cultivation under Various Climate Change Projections , 2013, PloS one.

[6]  Suresh Kumar,et al.  Medicinal plants of the Indian desert: Commiphora wightii (Arnott) Bhand , 1982 .

[7]  Fan Yang,et al.  Linear Antenna Array Synthesis Using Taguchi's Method: A Novel Optimization Technique in Electromagnetics , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Antennas and Propagation.

[8]  R. Hallett,et al.  Potential distribution and relative abundance of swede midge, Contarinia nasturtii, an invasive pest in Canada , 2006 .

[9]  M. Crawley,et al.  Exotic plant invasions and the enemy release hypothesis , 2002 .

[10]  L. Kumar,et al.  Suitable regions for date palm cultivation in Iran are predicted to increase substantially under future climate change scenarios , 2013, The Journal of Agricultural Science.

[11]  P. Popenoe.  The date palm. , 1973 .

[12]  N. Shayesteh,et al.  Some biological characteristics of the Batrachedra amydraula Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Batrachedridae) on main varieties of dry and semi-dry date palm of Iran , 2010 .

[13]  Muammer Nalbant,et al.  Application of Taguchi method in the optimization of cutting parameters for surface roughness in turning , 2007 .

[14]  M. Tengberg.  Beginnings and early history of date palm garden cultivation in the Middle East , 2012 .

[15]  O. Canziani,et al.  Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Summary for policymakers , 2007 .

[16]  C. Cilas,et al.  Phenotypic diversity of date-palm cultivars(Phoenix dactylifera L.) from Morocco , 2002, Genetic Resources and Crop Evolution.

[17]  Resit Unal,et al.  TAGUCHI APPROACH TO DESIGN OPTIMIZATION FOR QUALITY AND COST: AN OVERVIEW , 1990 .

[18]  Lukas H. Meyer,et al.  Summary for Policymakers , 2022, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

[19]  H. Auda,et al.  Studies on sprout inhibition of potatoes and onions and shelf-life extension of dates in Iraq , 1979 .

[20]  Imtiaz Ahmed Choudhury,et al.  Application of Taguchi method in the optimization of end milling parameters , 2004 .

[21]  Y. S. Tarng,et al.  Design optimization of cutting parameters for turning operations based on the Taguchi method , 1998 .

[22]  J. Daròs,et al.  The Mn-binding proteins of the photosystem II oxygen-evolving complex are decreased in date palms affected by brittle leaf disease. , 2011, Plant physiology and biochemistry : PPB.

[23]  Jane Elith,et al.  Error and uncertainty in habitat models , 2006 .

[24]  R. Krueger,et al.  The date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) : Overview of biology, uses, and cultivation , 2007 .

[25]  O. Edenhofer,et al.  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , 2013 .

[26]  H. Azadi,et al.  Enhancing date palm processing, marketing and pest control through organic culture. , 2008 .

[27]  M. S. Heakal,et al.  Long-term effects of irrigation and date-palm production on Torripsamments, Saudi Arabia☆ , 1989 .

[28]  J. Hanspach,et al.  Geographical patterns in prediction errors of species distribution models , 2011 .

[29]  Henry Shaw,et al.  Missouri Botanical Garden , 2012 .

[30]  L. Kumar,et al.  Use of CLIMEX, Land use and Topography to Refine Areas Suitable for Date Palm Cultivation in Spain under Climate Change Scenarios , 2013 .

[31]  Darren J. Kriticos,et al.  CLIMEX Version 3: User's Guide , 2007 .

[32]  Darren J. Kriticos,et al.  The fundamental and realized niche of the Monterey Pine aphid, Essigella californica (Essig) (Hemiptera: Aphididae): implications for managing softwood plantations in Australia , 2004 .

[33]  J. Eichel.  The Distribution And Abundance Of Animals , 2016 .

[34]  S. Schneider,et al.  Climate Change 2007 Synthesis report , 2008 .

[35]  R. W. Sutherst,et al.  A computerised system for matching climates in ecology , 1985 .

[36]  Lalit Kumar,et al.  Climate change will lead to larger areas of Spain being conducive to date palm cultivation , 2013 .

[37]  Cory Merow,et al.  Developing Dynamic Mechanistic Species Distribution Models: Predicting Bird-Mediated Spread of Invasive Plants across Northeastern North America , 2011, The American Naturalist.

[38]  A. Peterson,et al.  INTERPRETATION OF MODELS OF FUNDAMENTAL ECOLOGICAL NICHES AND SPECIES' DISTRIBUTIONAL AREAS , 2005 .

[39]  S. Eshghi,et al.  Effect of Nitrogen, Boron, Potassium and Zinc Sprays on Yield and Fruit Quality of Date Palm , 2007 .

[40]  Madhan Shridhar Phadke,et al.  Quality Engineering Using Robust Design , 1989 .

[41]  D. Kriticos,et al.  A comparison of systems to analyze potential weed distributions. , 2001 .

[42]  Steve W. Adkins,et al.  Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive alien plant: Acacia nilotica ssp. indica in Australia , 2003 .

[43]  Vincent R. Gray.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers , 2007 .

[44]  Kwon-Hee Lee,et al.  Robust design for unconstrained optimization problems using the Taguchi method , 1996 .

[45]  L. Kumar,et al.  Climate Change Impacts on the Future Distribution of Date Palms: A Modeling Exercise Using CLIMEX , 2012, PloS one.

[46]  F. Waldner.  Implementation of Taguchi's Method for optimal design using Orthogonal Arrays theory , 2013 .

[47]  Myron P. Zalucki,et al.  Predicting invasions in Australia by a Neotropical shrub under climate change: the challenge of novel climates and parameter estimation , 2009 .

[48]  Antoine Guisan,et al.  Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology , 2000 .

[49]  L. V. Lopez-Llorca,et al.  Endophytic colonization of date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) leaves by entomopathogenic fungi. , 2006, Micron.

[50]  A. Peterson,et al.  Predicting the potential invasive distributions of four alien plant species in North America , 2003, Weed Science.

[51]  S. Jain,et al.  Date Palm Biotechnology , 2011 .

[52]  R. Thaman.  Lantana camara: its introduction, dispersal and impact on islands of the tropical Pacific Ocean. , 1974 .

[53]  A. S. Raghubanshi,et al.  Lantana invasion: An overview , 2005 .

[54]  Mohammad A. Ismael,et al.  Purification and characterization of membrane-bound peroxidase from date palm leaves (Phoenix dactylifera L.). , 2011, Saudi journal of biological sciences.

[55]  David B. Lindenmayer,et al.  MANAGING LANDSCAPES FOR CONSERVATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY , 2005 .

[56]  P. Jones,et al.  Representing Twentieth-Century Space–Time Climate Variability. Part I: Development of a 1961–90 Mean Monthly Terrestrial Climatology , 1999 .

[57]  R. Zarghami,et al.  Somatic embryogenesis in two Iranian date palm cultivars , 2005 .

[58]  O. Edenhofer,et al.  Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective , 2007 .

[59]  A. Salem,et al.  Use of multivariate analysis to assess phenotypic diversity of date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) cultivars , 2011 .

[60]  L. Beaumont,et al.  Predicting species distributions: use of climatic parameters in BIOCLIM and its impact on predictions of species’ current and future distributions , 2005 .

[61]  N. A. Kanhar,et al.  FRUIT CHARACTERIZATION OF PAKISTANI DATES , 2010 .

[62]  T. Dawson,et al.  Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? , 2003 .

[63]  D. Hamby.  A review of techniques for parameter sensitivity analysis of environmental models , 1994, Environmental monitoring and assessment.

[64]  F. D. Panetta,et al.  WEED RISK ASSESSMENT , 2008 .

[65]  M. Ferry,et al.  The Red Palm Weevil in the Mediterranean Area , 2002 .

[66]  R. W. Sutherst,et al.  Modelling non-equilibrium distributions of invasive species: a tale of two modelling paradigms , 2009, Biological Invasions.

[67]  Richard J. Marshall,et al.  The fruit of the date palm: its possible use as the best food for the future? , 2003, International journal of food sciences and nutrition.

[68]  A. Pitman,et al.  The uncertainty in simulations by a Global Biome Model (BIOME3) to alternative parameter values , 2000 .

[69]  A. Palmer,et al.  A fuzzy classification technique for predicting species’ distributions: applications using invasive alien plants and indigenous insects , 2004 .

[70]  L. Kumar,et al.  Projecting date palm distribution in Iran under climate change using topography, physicochemical soil properties, soil taxonomy, land use, and climate data , 2014, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

[71]  H. Kassem.  The response of date palm to calcareous soil fertilisation , 2012 .