Evaluating the Impact of Improvements in the Boundary Layer Parameterization on Hurricane Intensity and Structure Forecasts in HWRF

AbstractAs part of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), recent boundary layer physics upgrades in the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model have benefited from analyses of in situ aircraft observations in the low-level eyewall region of major hurricanes. This study evaluates the impact of these improvements to the vertical diffusion in the boundary layer on the simulated track, intensity, and structure of four hurricanes using retrospective HWRF forecasts. Structural metrics developed from observational composites are used in the model evaluation process. The results show improvements in track and intensity forecasts in response to the improvement of the vertical diffusion. The results also demonstrate substantial improvements in the simulated storm size, surface inflow angle, near-surface wind profile, and kinematic boundary layer heights in simulations with the improved physics, while only minor improvements are found in the thermodynamic boundary layer height...

[1]  M. Montgomery,et al.  On the existence of the logarithmic surface layer in the inner core of hurricanes , 2014 .

[2]  Jun A. Zhang,et al.  Air-sea exchange in hurricanes : Synthesis of observations from the coupled boundary layer air-sea transfer experiment , 2007 .

[3]  Shuyi S. Chen,et al.  An Evaluation of Microphysics Fields from Mesoscale Model Simulations of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Comparisons with Observations , 2007 .

[4]  Jun A. Zhang,et al.  An Estimation of Turbulent Characteristics in the Low-Level Region of Intense Hurricanes Allen (1980) and Hugo (1989) , 2011 .

[5]  J. Kepert.  Slab‐ and height‐resolving models of the tropical cyclone boundary layer. Part I: Comparing the simulations , 2010 .

[6]  G. Bryan.  Effects of Surface Exchange Coefficients and Turbulence Length Scales on the Intensity and Structure of Numerically Simulated Hurricanes , 2012 .

[7]  David S. Nolan,et al.  On the Height of the Warm Core in Tropical Cyclones , 2012 .

[8]  Daniel P. Stern,et al.  Reexamining the vertical structure of tangential winds in tropical cyclones: Observations and theory , 2009 .

[9]  P. Black,et al.  First direct measurements of enthalpy flux in the hurricane boundary layer: The CBLAST results , 2008 .

[10]  Robert Atlas,et al.  Development and validation of a hurricane nature run using the joint OSSE nature run and the WRF model , 2013 .

[11]  David S. Nolan,et al.  An Expanded Dataset of Hurricane Eyewall Sizes and Slopes , 2014 .

[12]  A new paradigm for intensity modification of tropical cyclones: Thermodynamic impact of vertical wind shear on the inflow layer , 2009 .

[13]  R. Atlas,et al.  The Experimental HWRF System: A Study on the Influence of Horizontal Resolution on the Structure and Intensity Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using an Idealized Framework , 2011 .

[14]  David S. Nolan,et al.  Tropical Cyclone Intensification from Asymmetric Convection: Energetics and Efficiency , 2007 .

[15]  E. Uhlhorn,et al.  Observations of Air-Sea Interaction and Intensity Change in Hurricanes , 2013 .

[16]  Jun A. Zhang,et al.  Evaluation of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations in Tropical Cyclones by Comparison of In Situ Observations and High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Isabel (2003). Part I: Initialization, Maximum Winds, and the Outer-Core Boundary Layer , 2009 .

[17]  Jeffrey D. Kepert,et al.  The Dynamics of Boundary Layer Jets within the Tropical Cyclone Core. Part II: Nonlinear Enhancement , 2001 .

[18]  Jeffrey D. Kepert,et al.  The dynamics of boundary layer jets within the tropical cyclone core. Part I: Linear theory , 2001 .

[19]  W. Schubert,et al.  Rapid Development of the Tropical Cyclone Warm Core , 2008 .

[20]  Daniel P. Stern,et al.  How Does the Eye Warm? Part I: A Potential Temperature Budget Analysis of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone , 2013 .

[21]  A. Eliassen.  On the Ekman Layer in a circular Vortex , 1971 .

[22]  Hugh E. Willoughby,et al.  Objective Determination of Hurricane Tracks from Aircraft Observations , 1982 .

[23]  H. Pan,et al.  Nonlocal Boundary Layer Vertical Diffusion in a Medium-Range Forecast Model , 1996 .

[24]  F. Marks,et al.  The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project , 2013 .

[25]  Naomi Surgi,et al.  The Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A NOAA Multiyear Field Program for Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts , 2006 .

[26]  Peter G. Black,et al.  Environmental Influences on the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Opal (1995) over the Gulf of Mexico , 2000 .

[27]  F. Marks,et al.  Multiscale Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Kinematic Structure from Airborne Doppler Radar Composites , 2012 .

[28]  Robert F. Rogers,et al.  Convective-Scale Structure and Evolution during a High-Resolution Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification , 2010 .

[29]  Sylvie Lorsolo,et al.  Airborne Doppler Observations of the Inner-Core Structural Differences between Intensifying and Steady-State Tropical Cyclones , 2013 .

[30]  Scott A. Braun,et al.  Sensitivity of High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Bob (1991) to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations , 2000 .

[31]  K. Emanuel.  Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Surface Exchange Coefficients and a Revised Steady-State Model incorporating Eye Dynamics , 1995 .

[32]  J. Molinari,et al.  External Influences on Hurricane Intensity. Part III: Potential Vorticity Structure , 1995 .

[33]  J. Gamache,et al.  Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Part I: Low-Wavenumber Structure and Evolution , 2009 .

[34]  Da‐Lin Zhang,et al.  Importance of the upper‐level warm core in the rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone , 2012 .

[35]  Jun A. Zhang,et al.  Hurricane Sea Surface Inflow Angle and an Observation-Based Parametric Model , 2012 .

[36]  Thomas A. Guinn,et al.  Polygonal Eyewalls, Asymmetric Eye Contraction, and Potential Vorticity Mixing in Hurricanes , 1999 .

[37]  Frank D. Marks,et al.  HWRFx: Improving Hurricane Forecasts with High-Resolution Modeling , 2011, Computing in Science & Engineering.

[38]  Stanley B. Goldenberg,et al.  Toward Improving High-Resolution Numerical Hurricane Forecasting: Influence of Model Horizontal Grid Resolution, Initialization, and Physics , 2012 .

[39]  Roger K. Smith,et al.  Dependence of tropical‐cyclone intensification on the boundary‐layer representation in a numerical model , 2010 .

[40]  C. Velden,et al.  ARTICLES: The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity. , 2004 .

[41]  Jun A. Zhang,et al.  An Observational Study of Vertical Eddy Diffusivity in the Hurricane Boundary Layer , 2012 .

[42]  Jeffrey D. Kepert,et al.  Choosing a Boundary Layer Parameterization for Tropical Cyclone Modeling , 2012 .

[43]  S. Durden.  Observed Tropical Cyclone Eye Thermal Anomaly Profiles Extending above 300 hPa , 2013 .

[44]  M. Montgomery,et al.  An Analysis of the Observed Low-level Structure of Rapidly Intensifying and Mature Hurricane Earl (2010) , 2014 .

[45]  J. Kepert.  Slab‐ and height‐resolving models of the tropical cyclone boundary layer. Part II: Why the simulations differ , 2010 .

[46]  Mark D. Powell,et al.  The Transition of the Hurricane Frederic Boundary-Layer Wind Field from the Open Gulf of Mexico to Landfall , 1982 .

[47]  Mark D. Powell,et al.  NOAA'S Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A Progress Report , 2012 .

[48]  R. Houze,et al.  Three-Dimensional Kinematic and Microphysical Evolution of Florida Cumulonimbus. Part III: Vertical Mass Transport, Mass Divergence, and Synthesis , 1995 .

[49]  F. Marks,et al.  The Impact of Horizontal Grid Spacing on the Microphysical and Kinematic Structures of Strong Tropical Cyclones Simulated with the WRF-ARW Model , 2009 .

[50]  Melville E. Nicholls,et al.  A Vortical Hot Tower Route to Tropical Cyclogenesis. , 2006 .

[51]  Matthew D. Eastin,et al.  Two Distinct Regimes in the Kinematic and Thermodynamic Structure of the Hurricane Eye and Eyewall , 2001 .

[52]  J. Knaff,et al.  A Revised Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Index for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins , 2010 .

[53]  Jun A. Zhang,et al.  On the Characteristic Height Scales of the Hurricane Boundary Layer , 2011, Monthly Weather Review.

[54]  G. Heymsfield,et al.  ER-2 Doppler Radar Investigations of the Eyewall of Hurricane Bonnie during the Convection and Moisture Experiment-3 , 2001 .

[55]  M. Donelan,et al.  Relative rates of sea‐air heat transfer and frictional drag in very high winds , 2010 .

[56]  Herbert Riehl,et al.  On the Dynamics and Energy Transformations in Steady‐State Hurricanes , 1960 .

[57]  I. Troen,et al.  A simple model of the atmospheric boundary layer; sensitivity to surface evaporation , 1986 .

[58]  V. Tallapragada,et al.  Evaluation of Storm Structure from the Operational HWRF during 2012 Implementation , 2014 .

[59]  Scott A. Braun,et al.  Reevaluating the Role of the Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis and Evolution , 2010 .

[60]  Jun A. Zhang,et al.  A Developmental Framework for Improving Hurricane Model Physical Parameterizations Using Aircraft Observations , 2012 .

[61]  Frank D. Marks,et al.  Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Problems and Associated Research Opportunities. , 1998 .

[62]  F. Marks,et al.  A Study of the Impacts of Vertical Diffusion on the Structure and Intensity of the Tropical Cyclones Using the High-Resolution HWRF System , 2013 .

[63]  Daniel P. Stern,et al.  Evaluation of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations in Tropical Cyclones by Comparison of In Situ Observations and High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Isabel (2003). Part II: Inner-Core Boundary Layer and Eyewall Structure , 2009 .

[64]  Mark DeMaria,et al.  Large-Scale Characteristics of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin , 2003 .