Aircraft conflict prediction in the presence of a spatially correlated wind field

In this paper, the problem of automated aircraft conflict prediction is studied for two-aircraft midair encounters. A model is introduced to predict the aircraft positions along some look-ahead time horizon, during which each aircraft is trying to follow a prescribed flight plan despite the presence of additive wind perturbations to its velocity. A spatial correlation structure is assumed for the wind perturbations such that the closer the two aircraft, the stronger the correlation between the perturbations to their velocities. Using this model, a method is introduced to evaluate the criticality of the encounter situation by estimating the probability of conflict, namely, the probability that the two aircraft come closer than a minimum allowed distance at some time instant during the look-ahead time horizon. The proposed method is based on the introduction of a Markov chain approximation of the stochastic processes modeling the aircraft motions. Several generalizations of the proposed approach are also discussed.

[1]  George Christakos,et al.  Random Field Models in Earth Sciences , 1992 .

[2]  James K. Kuchar,et al.  Prototype Conflict Alerting Logic for Free Flight , 1997 .

[3]  S. Shankar Sastry,et al.  Optimal Coordinated Motions of Multiple Agents Moving on a Plane , 2003, SIAM J. Control. Optim..

[4]  S. Shankar Sastry,et al.  OPTIMAL COORDINATED MANEUVERS FOR THREE DIMENSIONAL AIRCRAFT CONFLICT RESOLUTION , 2001 .

[5]  Jean-Marc Alliot,et al.  Air Traffic Conflict Resolution by Genetic Algorithms , 1995, Artificial Evolution.

[6]  Douglas R. Isaacson,et al.  Conflict Detection and Resolution In the Presence of Prediction Error , 1997 .

[7]  Heinz Erzberger,et al.  Conflict probability estimation for free flight , 1997 .

[8]  Rodney E. Cole,et al.  Assessment of the 60 km rapid update cycle (RUC) with near real-time aircraft reports. Project report , 1998 .

[9]  S. Shankar Sastry,et al.  Conflict resolution for air traffic management: a study in multiagent hybrid systems , 1998, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control..

[10]  Ralph F. Milliff,et al.  Mesoscale Correlation Length Scales from NSCAT and Minimet Surface Wind Retrievals in the Labrador Sea , 2003 .

[11]  S. Shankar Sastry,et al.  Probabilistic safety analysis in three dimensional aircraft flight , 2003, 42nd IEEE International Conference on Decision and Control (IEEE Cat. No.03CH37475).

[12]  John Lygeros,et al.  A probabilistic approach to aircraft conflict detection , 2000, IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst..

[13]  Michael Edward Hohn,et al.  An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics: by Edward H. Isaaks and R. Mohan Srivastava, 1989, Oxford University Press, New York, 561 p., ISBN 0-19-505012-6, ISBN 0-19-505013-4 (paperback), $55.00 cloth, $35.00 paper (US) , 1991 .

[14]  James K. Kuchar,et al.  Prototype conflict alerting system for free flight , 1997 .

[15]  D. W. Stroock,et al.  Multidimensional Diffusion Processes , 1979 .

[16]  James K. Kuchar,et al.  A review of conflict detection and resolution modeling methods , 2000, IEEE Trans. Intell. Transp. Syst..

[17]  J. Kaimal,et al.  Spectral Characteristics of Surface-Layer Turbulence , 1972 .

[18]  Lee C. Yang,et al.  USING INTENT INFORMATION IN PROBABILISTIC CONFLICT ANALYSIS , 1998 .

[19]  John Lygeros,et al.  Aircraft and weather models for probabilistic collision avoidance in air traffic control , 2002, Proceedings of the 41st IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 2002..

[20]  G. D. Sweriduk,et al.  Optimal Strategies for Free-Flight Air Traffic Conflict Resolution , 1999 .

[21]  Yiyuan Zhao,et al.  Deterministic resolution of two aircraft conflict in free flight , 1997 .

[22]  S. Sastry,et al.  Aircraft conflict prediction and resolution using Brownian motion , 1999, Proceedings of the 38th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (Cat. No.99CH36304).

[23]  Mark Peters,et al.  Strategic conflict detection and resolution for free flight , 1997, Proceedings of the 36th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control.

[24]  S. Shankar Sastry,et al.  Generation of conflict resolution manoeuvres for air traffic management , 1997, Proceedings of the 1997 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robot and Systems. Innovative Robotics for Real-World Applications. IROS '97.