Statistical Assessment of Integrity in Steam Generator Tubes Considering Uncertainty of NDE

A statistical assessment model for structural integrity of steam generator tubes with axial cracks at the top of the tubesheet was proposed using Monte Carlo method. In the model, a method for estimating the number of "real cracks" from in-situ inspection (ISI) data was used. Based on the estimated "real cracks", the number of newly detected cracks and growth of cracks during arbitrary operating period were simulated using the Monte Carlo method. The flaw growth rate used in the simulation was statistically calculated from the periodic in-service non-destructive inspection data. The number of cracks, the probabilistic distribution of crack sizes at the end of next operating interval and the probability of burst during operation were calculated from numerously repeated simulations using the proposed model.