Long-term prospects for world population growth.

It is estimated that world population will stabilize at 6-13 billion between the years 2000-2050. 4 projections are calculated to correspond to dates of estimated attainment of replacement level fertility: 1980-85 2000-05 2020-23 and 2040-45. Possible world growth rates for the year 2000 range from 1.0%-1.5% and by 2050 could be as low as 0.6%. The population of developed regions has a weak growth momentum; the population is projected to increase moderately by 2000 the rate of increase may be 0.1% per year. In developing countries assuming fertility and mortality trends of the past 10-15 years continue average replacement level fertility would stabilize around 8 billion. Developing region growth rates for 2000 are likely to be between 1.1%-1.8% and 0.5% by 2050. Developing countries represent considerable diversity while developed countries exhibit a high level of homogeneity. East Asias population is likely to stabilize between 1.7-2.5 billion by 2100; however if China reaches zero population growth by 2000 the population could possibly stabilize below 1.7 billion. South Asias projections indicate a stable population between 3.5-5.0 billion by 2100. The population growth prospects are more uncertain for Africa but a stable population between 1.5-2.0 billion by 2100 is reasonable. Latin Americas population will certainly double by 2050 and may triple before stabilizing between 0.8-1.2 billion. Before stabilizing at some point during the 21st century the 1980 world popultion of 4.4 billion is likely to at least double in size but not triple. (summaries in ENG FRE SPA)