Prognostic value of plasma markers of immune activation in patients with advanced HIV disease treated by combination antiretroviral therapy.

We assessed the prognostic role of plasma levels of beta2-microglobulin, TNF-alpha, sTNFR-II, and IFN-gamma on the progression to AIDS in patients mostly treated with combination antiretroviral therapies. HIV-1-infected patients with advanced HIV disease (baseline CD4+ cell count between 50 and 250 x 10(6)/L) were included in a prospective cohort followed up for 36 months. In the 113 patients included, 22 first AIDS-defining events were reported. Cumulative probability of AIDS was 12% at M12, 18% at M24, and 20% at M36. Using a Cox model, the baseline level of sTNFR-II (hazard ratio of 3.75 for sTNFR-II > or =10 ng/ml vs < 10 ng/ml, P = 0.01) was associated with progression to AIDS. sTNFR-II remained a prognostic factor before and after the introduction of combinations of antiretrovirals. Whether or not this marker is of value in patients exclusively treated with highly active antiretroviral therapy needs to be assessed in specific studies.

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