Lanchester Models for Phase II Insurgency

Abstract : Deterministic forms of Lanchester's Equations applicable to Phase II insurgency are developed. Three types of military activity are identified and modeled: (1) Skirmish where maneuver is used on both sides and surprise is not a major factor, (2) Ambush where, due to the surprise element, the attackers' weapon efficiencies are undergoing rapid and significant change during the early stages of conflict, and (3) Siege, attack of a fixed perimeter fortification (typically, Strategic Hamlets). The effects of captured-in-action and troop morale as manifest in battle-stress desertions are included in each case. Numerical solutions for illustratively chosen parameters are obtained by digital computer.