Professional advice ∗

This paper studies strategic communication by an expert who is concerned about appearing to be well informed. The expert is assumed to observe a private signal with a simple and particularly tractable (“multiplicative linear”) structure. The quality of the expert’s information is evaluated on the basis of the advice given and the realized state of the world. In equilibrium of this reputational cheap-talk game, no more than two messages are effectively reported. The model is extended to consider sequential communication by experts with conditionally independent signals. In the long run, learning is incomplete and herd behavior arises. JEL classification: D72; D82; D83; G20; J30.

[1]  Kent Osband Optimal Forecasting Incentives , 1989, Journal of Political Economy.

[2]  A. Banerjee,et al.  A Simple Model of Herd Behavior , 1992 .

[3]  M Ottaviani,et al.  Herd behavior and investment: Comment , 2000 .

[4]  Daniel J. Seidmann Effective cheap talk with conflicting interests , 1990 .

[5]  David Laster,et al.  Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts , 1997 .

[6]  Anat R. Admati,et al.  Broadcasting Opinions with an Overconfident Sender , 2004 .

[7]  J. Sobel,et al.  STRATEGIC INFORMATION TRANSMISSION , 1982 .

[8]  Lones Smith,et al.  Pathological Outcomes of Observational Learning , 2000 .

[9]  Susanne Lohmann,et al.  Information aggregation through costly political action , 1994 .

[10]  J. Graham Herding Among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence , 1998 .

[11]  I. Welch Herding among security analysts , 2000 .

[12]  Lars Stole,et al.  Impetuous Youngsters and Jaded Old-Timers: Acquiring a Reputation for Learning , 1996, Journal of Political Economy.

[13]  Bengt Holmstrom,et al.  Managerial Incentives and Capital Management , 1986 .

[14]  J. Chevalier,et al.  Herding over the career , 1999 .

[15]  Tilman Ehrbeck,et al.  Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations , 1996 .

[16]  Brett Trueman Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior , 1994 .

[17]  P. Sørensen,et al.  The Strategy of Professional Forecasting , 2001 .

[18]  Paul R. Milgrom,et al.  Good News and Bad News: Representation Theorems and Applications , 1981 .

[19]  P. Sørensen,et al.  Reputational cheap talk , 2006 .

[20]  B. Holmström,et al.  On incentives and control in organizations , 1977 .

[21]  Wojciech Olszewski,et al.  Informal communication , 2004, J. Econ. Theory.

[22]  Owen A. Lamont Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters , 2002 .

[23]  D. A. Conway,et al.  Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern Distributions , 2006 .

[24]  S. Bikhchandani,et al.  You have printed the following article : A Theory of Fads , Fashion , Custom , and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades , 2007 .

[25]  Eric Zitzewitz,et al.  Measuring Herding and Exaggeration by Equity Analysts and Other Opinion Sellers , 2001 .

[26]  Wei Li Mind Changes in the Design of Reporting Protocols , 2004 .

[27]  David E. Runkle,et al.  Are Financial Analysts' Forecasts of Corporate Profits Rational? , 1998, Journal of Political Economy.

[28]  J. Morgan,et al.  A Model of Expertise , 1999 .

[29]  D. Scharfstein,et al.  Herd Behavior and Investment , 1990 .

[30]  J. Sobel A Theory of Credibility , 1985 .

[31]  Lee In Ho On the Convergence of Informational Cascades , 1993 .

[32]  Ben Polak,et al.  When Managers Cover Their Posteriors: Making the Decisions the Market Wants to See , 1996 .

[33]  Christian Ewerhart,et al.  'Yes Men,' Integrity, and the Optimal Design of Incentive Contracts , 2000 .

[34]  Jeffrey D. Kubik,et al.  Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts , 1998 .

[35]  Victor Zarnowitz,et al.  An appraisal of short-term economic forecasts , 1967 .

[36]  Jerry R. Green,et al.  A two-person game of information transmission , 1980, J. Econ. Theory.

[37]  Jeremy C. Stein,et al.  Herd Behavior and Investment: Reply , 2000 .

[38]  Michele Piccione,et al.  A Simple Model of Expert and Non-Expert Bidding in First-Price Auctions , 1996 .

[39]  Russell J. Lundholm,et al.  Endogenous Timing and the Clustering of Agents' Decisions , 1995, Journal of Political Economy.

[40]  Andrea Prat,et al.  The Wrong Kind of Transparency , 2002 .

[41]  G. G. Stokes "J." , 1890, The New Yale Book of Quotations.

[42]  Joel Watson,et al.  Information Transmission When the Informed Party Is Confused , 1996 .

[43]  Canice Prendergast,et al.  A Theory of "Yes Men." , 1993 .

[44]  Mattias Polborn,et al.  Herding and anti-herding: A model of reputational differentiation , 2001 .

[45]  Glenn Ellison,et al.  Career Concerns of Mutual Fund Managers , 1998 .