Spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure: evidence from Chinese regions

This paper examines the possibility of spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure in Chinese regions. We estimate the regional spillovers of the transport infrastructure stock by applying a spatial Durbin Model for the time-period 1978–2009, and also three sub-periods, 1978–1990, 1991–2000 and 2001–2009. The results indicate that positive spillovers exist in each period due to the connectivity characteristic of transport infrastructure at the national level. At the regional level, transport infrastructure spillover effects vary considerably over time among China’s four macro-regions: the eastern region enjoyed positive spillovers all the time; the northeastern region had no significant spillover effects in 1978–1990, negative spillovers in 1991–2000, and positive spillovers in 2001–2009; the central region had negative spillovers for the three sub-periods; for the western region, negative spillovers can be observed after the 1990s. The analysis indicates that changes in spillovers among regions are closely associated with the migration of production factors in China during the last decades.