The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development * †

We present a theory of the economic and demographic transition where adult longevity, child mortality, fertility and the education composition of the population are jointly determined. The model allows for an investigation of the determinants of underdevelopment traps as well as of the mechanism that leads to an endogenous exit out of the trap. We also study the different roles of exogenous reductions in mortality and of permanent differences in extrinsic mortality for comparative development. The theory delivers a series of novel predictions which are illustrated with a simple dynamic simulation of the model. These predictions are shown to be consistent with evidence using both time series data and crosscountry panel data. and the IZA Workshop on Demographic Change for helpful discussions and comments on an earlier version of this paper. We are also particularly grateful to David de la Croix for providing us with schooling data for Sweden and to Vegard Skirbekk for allowing us to reproduce some of his results. The usual disclaimer applies.

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