Growth dynamics : an empirical investigation of output growth using international data

The rates of growth of output per head vary across countries. Despite the fact that these differences are of a small order of magnitude, they would translate into large differences i n t he average 1 iving s tandards o f t he c ountries i f t hey were to p ersist over the years. It is therefore very important to understand the process of long run growth and as a consequence many recent studies concentrate on the issue of cross country convergence. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the process of growth across countries and the possibility of inter-relationships of these processes across countries. To this avail, an empirical analysis of per capita output across countries is carried out first using the exact continuous time version of two neoclassical growth models, the Solow growth model and The Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model. Results show that when these models are estimated consistently countries do not seem to be converging in the sense typically used in the literature. The rest of the thesis aims to investigate in more detail the processes by which growth in different countries might be related. Based on extensions of another neoclassical model, the Overlapping Generations model, and using a nonlinear switching regime model for estimation, two empirical analyses are carried out. The first one examines the role o f balance of payments constraints in cross country growth determination. The second studies the extent of technology spillovers across countries and their effect on the process of growth. On one hand, results reveal little evidence of current account deficits constraining growth in the long run in the G7 countries although there is ample evidence of an influence in the short run dynamics of growth. On the other hand, spillovers of technology across the G7 countries are found to be of importance in the process of growth.