Economic Mitigation Challenges : How Further Delay Closes the Door for Climate Targets – Policy Brief –

Climate change is broadly recognized as one of the major global challenges humanity is facing (IPCC 2007). The ultimate goal stated in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to “prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. In the Copenhagen Accord and the subsequent Cancun Agreements, the international community adopted the long-term target of limiting the increase of global mean temperature to no more than 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels. While no level of global warming can be considered inherently safe, stabilization of climate change at 2°C above pre-industrial levels may substantially reduce the risk of large-scale discontinuities, for instance the melting of the Greenland ice sheet (Lenton et al. 2008; Smith et al. 2009). Despite the broad recognition of the 2°C target, progress in the implementation of concrete emissions reduction policies has been slow. Even with the implementation of climate policy measures in several world regions (UNEP 2012), global emissions have continued to rise (EDGAR 2011). Reaching the 2°C target with a likely chance implies a tight limit on cumulative future anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Meinshausen et al. 2009; Matthews et al. 2009). Various reports have concluded that pledged national 2020 reduction targets fall short of the reductions required to meet the 2°C target in a cost-optimal way (UNEP 2010, 2011, 2012; Rogelj et al. 2010).