Pattern-oriented modelling for estimating unknown pre-breeding survival rates: The case of the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker (Picoides minor)

Abstract In population viability analysis we are often faced with a lack of knowledge of survival rates in animal populations. In particular, survival of recruits is usually hard to assess. However, data on population structure might be considered as patterns that contain valuable information to estimate missing parameters indirectly. As an example for this pattern-oriented modelling and parameterization, pre-breeding survival rate of the endangered Lesser Spotted Woodpecker (Picoides minor) was determined here using data on population structure (e.g. sex ratio) and reproductive success at the population level (e.g. nesting success). Therefore, an individual-based model was developed simulating the population dynamics for two different populations that had been empirically studied at Lake Mockeln, Sweden, and Taunus, Germany. For both populations, a small range for pre-breeding survival rates could be identified wherein all simulated patterns corresponded best to the empirical values. Pre-breeding survival rate was found to be higher in the German scenario than in the Swedish and geographical variation in life-history traits is discussed as a possible reason. It is concluded that the pattern-oriented approach is a valuable method for estimating missing demographic parameters, even when using weak patterns from empirical investigations. Furthermore, it was shown that the use of multiple patterns is necessary for this purpose.

[1]  K. Larsson,et al.  Pre-breeding survival of barnacle geese Branta leucopsis in relation to fledgling characteristics. , 1998, The Journal of animal ecology.

[2]  R. Ricklefs.  COMPARATIVE DEMOGRAPHY OF NEW WORLD POPULATIONS OF THRUSHES (TURDUS SPP.) , 1997 .

[3]  O. Olsson,et al.  Annual and seasonal reproductive trends in the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos minor , 2001 .

[4]  D. Lack.  The Significance of Clutch‐size , 2008 .

[5]  Thorsten Wiegand,et al.  Fragmented landscapes, road mortality and patch connectivity: modelling influences on the dispersal of Eurasian lynx , 2004 .

[6]  Ola Olsson,et al.  Seasonal variation in home-range size, and habitat area requirement of the lesser spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos minor) in southern Sweden , 2001 .

[7]  S. Wanless,et al.  Inter-population variation in demographic parameters: a neglected subject? , 2005 .

[8]  Karin Frank,et al.  Pattern-oriented modelling in population ecology , 1996 .

[9]  Steven F. Railsback,et al.  Individual-based modeling and ecology , 2005 .

[10]  Mathematisch-naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät.  Breeding biology, mating system and population dynamics of the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker (Picoides minor): combining empirical and model investigations , 2005 .

[11]  V. Bretagnolle,et al.  Evaluation of the extinction risk and of conservation alternatives for a very small insular population: the bearded vulture Gypaetus barbatus in Corsica , 2004 .

[12]  J. García‐Ruiz,et al.  DENSITY-DEPENDENT AGE OF FIRST REPRODUCTION AS A BUFFER AFFECTING PERSISTENCE OF SMALL POPULATIONS , 2004 .

[13]  R. Ricklefs.  DENSITY DEPENDENCE, EVOLUTIONARY OPTIMIZATION, AND THE DIVERSIFICATION OF AVIAN LIFE HISTORIES , 2000 .

[14]  A. Skutch.  Clutch Size, Nesting Success, and Predation on Nests of Neotropical Birds, Reviewed , 1985 .

[15]  Michael E. Tewes,et al.  Evaluating recovery strategies for an ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) population in the united states , 2005 .

[16]  Ian Newton.  Lifetime Reproduction in Birds , 1990 .

[17]  S A White,et al.  Survival Rates of Tropical and Temperate Passerines: A Trinidadian Perspective , 1997, The American Naturalist.

[18]  F. Jeltsch,et al.  Reproductive success and nestling diet in the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker (Picoides minor): the early bird gets the caterpillar , 2007, Journal of Ornithology.

[19]  H. Resit Akçakaya,et al.  PVA in Theory and Practice , 1995 .

[20]  J. Tews,et al.  Seed dispersal by cattle may cause shrub encroachment of Grewia flava on southern Kalahari rangelands , 2004 .

[21]  Thorsten Wiegand,et al.  ASSESSING THE RISK OF EXTINCTION FOR THE BROWN BEAR (URSUS ARCTOS) IN THE CORDILLERA CANTABRICA, SPAIN , 1998 .

[22]  K. Böhning‐Gaese,et al.  Evolution of clutch size along latitudinal gradients: revisiting Ashmole’s hypothesis , 2004 .

[23]  Steven F. Railsback,et al.  ANALYSIS OF HABITAT‐SELECTION RULES USING ANINDIVIDUAL‐BASED MODEL , 2002 .

[24]  Amy W. Ando,et al.  On the Use of Demographic Models of Population Viability in Endangered Species Management , 1998 .

[25]  Miguel Delibes,et al.  Effects of Matrix Heterogeneity on Animal Dispersal: From Individual Behavior to Metapopulation‐Level Parameters , 2004, The American Naturalist.

[26]  N. Ashmole.  THE REGULATION OF NUMBERS OF TROPICAL OCEANIC BIRDS , 2008 .

[27]  W. Sydeman,et al.  Effects of age, breeding experience, mate fidelity and site fidelity on breeding performance in a declining population of Cassin’s auklets , 2001 .

[28]  Florian Jeltsch,et al.  From pattern to practice: a scaling-down strategy for spatially explicit modelling illustrated by the spread and control of rabies , 1999 .

[29]  Volker Grimm,et al.  Using pattern-oriented modeling for revealing hidden information: a key for reconciling ecological theory and application , 2003 .

[30]  V. Grimm,et al.  Behavioural flexibility in the mating system buffers population extinction: lessons from the lesser spotted woodpecker Picoides minor. , 2006, The Journal of animal ecology.

[31]  Thorsten Wiegand,et al.  Dealing with Uncertainty in Spatially Explicit Population Models , 2004, Biodiversity & Conservation.

[32]  H. Southern,et al.  Handbook of the Birds of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa; the Birds of the Western Palearctic , 1978 .

[33]  E. Curio.  Why de young birds reproduce less well , 2008 .

[34]  H. Resit Akçakaya,et al.  Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology , 2000, Nature.

[35]  S. Dale,et al.  Viability of an endangered population of ortolan buntings: The effect of a skewed operational sex ratio , 2006 .

[36]  V. Grimm.  Ten years of individual-based modelling in ecology: what have we learned and what could we learn in the future? , 1999 .

[37]  O. Olsson,et al.  AGE AND REPRODUCTION IN LESSER SPOTTED WOODPECKERS (DENDROCOPOS MINOR) , 2001 .

[38]  B. G. Murray.  Evolution of Clutch Size in Tropical Species of Birds , 1985 .

[39]  E. Bignal,et al.  Age‐specific reproductive performance in red‐billed choughs Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax: patterns and processes in a natural population , 2003 .

[40]  Uta Berger,et al.  Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology , 2005, Science.

[41]  O. Olsson.  Through the eyes of a woodpecker: Understanding habitat selection, territory quality and reproductive decisions from individual behaviour , 1998 .

[42]  O. Olsson,et al.  Parental care and social mating system in the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos minor , 2000 .

[43]  U. Wiktander.  Reproduction and survival in the lesser spotted woodpecker. Effects of life history, mating system and age. , 1998 .

[44]  C. Wissel,et al.  Implication of climate change for the persistence of raptors in arid savanna , 2003 .

[45]  J. Nichols,et al.  Survival Rates of Birds of Tropical and Temperate Forests: Will the Dogma Survive? , 1990, The American Naturalist.