On the use of expert judgement in the qualification of risk assessment

Vaitoskirjan tavoitteena on kehittaa riskianalyysia menetelmana siten, etta asiantuntija-arvioiden rooli tasmentyy ja laajenee seka riskianalyysin laatu paranee. Vaitoskirjan erityisena kimmokkeena on ollut riskianalyysien lisaantynyt tarve merenkulun turvallisuuden kehittamisessa Suomen meriliikenteessa ja sen soveltamisessa havaitut menetelmalliset puutteet. Tutkimuksessa on kehitetty riskianalyysiin liittyvien epavarmuuksien maarittelyja seka niiden systemaattista arviointia. Tutkimuksessa on myos kehitetty riskianalyysin tulosten tulkinta- ja laadun arviointitapoja. Teknisemmat tutkimustulokset liittyvat kvantitatiivisten asiantuntija-arvioiden matemaattiseen yhdistamiseen. Vaitoskirjan tutkimustuloksilla on merkitysta riskitietoisessa paatoksenteossa yleensa, vaikka menetelmakehitys on demonstroitu merenkulun turvallisuuden, teknisen jarjestelman kunnonvalvonnan ja ohjelmistoluotettavuuden sovellusalueilla. Riskitietoisen paatoksenteon tarve nayttaa lisaantyvan niin yritysmaailmassa kuin julkisella sektorilla.

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