A Simpler and More Direct Derivation of System Reliability Using Markov Chain Usage Models

resent possible transitions between states of use (such as “Activating Cruise Control” when the driver presses a button on the steering wheel, or “Deactivating Cruise Control” when the driver engages the brake). Each arc has an associated probability of making that particular transition, based on expected usage data in the field. The outgoing arcs from each state have probabilities that sum to one. Test cases can be generated from the model by different sampling options. Pass and fail data are recorded and analyzed for reliability estimation, coverage analysis, or stopping decisions. This form of statistical testing [6, 5, 10, 8, 11, 14, 16, 15] supports quantitative certification of software by a statistical protocol. A public domain tool supporting statistical testing (JUMBL: J Usage Model Builder Library developed by UTK SQRL) is freely available [9, 1].

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