The impact of climate warming on water temperature, timing of hatching and young-of-the-year growth of fish in shallow lakes in the Netherlands

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts increases in global average surface temperature from 1.1 to 6.4 °C for the year 2100. Here, we focus on the impact of climate warming on eutrophic shallow lakes in the Netherlands, using three representative lakes that cover the full range of lake sizes and depths. In these lakes, temperature has been shown to be the main determinant of hatching and growth of young-of-the-year fish. Because records of water temperature of our study lakes are incomplete, we applied an existing model to predict water temperatures from air temperatures for shallow, wind exposed and holomictic water bodies. To evaluate the implications of our results for marine systems, we also analyzed water temperature data of Marsdiep, a tidal inlet to the Waddensea. The lake water temperature model fitted equally well to all four water bodies. Applying the water temperature model to the period 1961–2006 showed an annual increase of 0.042 °C irrespective of lake size and depth. We extrapolated the consequences of lake warming for the onset of growth of larval bream and the size of young-of-the-year bream at the end of the year using an existing fish hatching and growth model. Both models were tested against data from Lake Tjeukemeer, which is intermediate in size compared to Lake Zwemlust and Lake IJsselmeer. The main conclusions of this study are that 1) there is a very tight coupling between air and water temperatures in Dutch shallow lakes, irrespective of their size, resulting in highly similar patterns of lake temperature and a direct translation of climate warming into lake warming; 2) on average water temperature has increased by 2 °C in the period 1961–2006; 3) temperature patterns in the tidal inlet showed a surprising resemblance with the lake temperature patterns, the coastal marine system essentially behaving like an extremely large lake; 4) there are, however, strong seasonal patterns in the extent of warming in a given period of the year; 5) lake warming leads to ca. 3 weeks earlier onset of growth and 20 mm larger sizes in bream during 1971–2006 under the assumption of temperature limited growth in these eutrophic ecosystems.

[1]  Thomas Mehner,et al.  Temperature impact on the midsummer decline of Daphnia galeata: an analysis of long‐term data from the biomanipulated Bautzen Reservoir (Germany) , 2001 .

[2]  J. Christensen,et al.  Climate modelling: Severe summertime flooding in Europe , 2003, Nature.

[3]  Daniel E. Schindler,et al.  CLIMATE CHANGE UNCOUPLES TROPHIC INTERACTIONS IN AN AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM , 2004 .

[4]  P. Quétin,et al.  Effect of temperature changes on the reproductive cycle of roach in Lake Geneva from 1983 to 2001 , 2006 .

[5]  W. Mooij.  A key to the identification of larval bream, Abramis brama, white bream, Blicca bjoerkna, and roach, Rutilus rutilus , 1989 .

[6]  J. Lappalainen,et al.  Latitudinal gradients in onset date, onset temperature and duration of spawning of roach , 2007 .

[7]  J. Janse,et al.  Model studies on the eutrophication of shallow lakes and ditches , 2005 .

[8]  D. Straile.  Meteorological forcing of plankton dynamics in a large and deep continental European lake , 2000, Oecologia.

[9]  Marten Scheffer,et al.  Biomanipulation in shallow lakes in The Netherlands: an evaluation of 18 case studies , 1999 .

[10]  D. Straile,et al.  Influence of climate variability on whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) year-class strength in a deep, warm monomictic lake , 2007, Oecologia.

[11]  D. G. George.  The impact of regional-scale changes in the weather on the long-term dynamics of Eudiaptomus and Daphnia in Esthwaite water, Cumbria , 2000 .

[12]  E. Donk,et al.  Effects of fish and nutrient additions on food-web stability in a charophyte-dominated lake , 2004 .

[13]  J. Koonce,et al.  Factors Influencing Year-Class Strength of Percids: A Summary and a Model of Temperature Effects , 1977 .

[14]  O. Hoegh‐Guldberg,et al.  Ecological responses to recent climate change , 2002, Nature.

[15]  W. Mooij,et al.  Growth Rate of 0+ Fish in Relation to Temperature, Body Size, and Food in Shallow Eutrophic Lake Tjeukemeer , 1994 .

[16]  P. Karås.  Recruitment of perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) from Baltic coastal waters , 1996 .

[17]  D. H. Cushing,et al.  Plankton Production and Year-class Strength in Fish Populations: an Update of the Match/Mismatch Hypothesis , 1990 .

[18]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate change 2001 : the scientific basis , 2001 .

[19]  E. Lammens,et al.  Resource Partitioning and Niche Shifts of Bream (Abramis brama) and Eel (Anguilla anguilla) Mediated by Predation of Smelt (Osmerus eperlanus) on Daphnia hyalina , 1985 .

[20]  M. H. Olson.  Ontogenetic Niche Shifts in Largemouth Bass: Variability and Consequences for First‐Year Growth , 1996 .

[21]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[22]  E. Jeppesen,et al.  A comparison of shallow Danish and Canadian lakes and implications of climate change , 2007 .

[23]  W. Mooij,et al.  Statistical analysis of the somatic growth rate of O+ fish in relation to temperature under natural conditions , 1998 .

[24]  E. Jeppesen,et al.  Two simple models for estimating daily mean water temperatures and diel variations in a Danish low gradient stream , 1987 .

[25]  S. Hülsmann,et al.  Initiation of the midsummer decline of Daphnia as related to predation, non-consumptive mortality and recruitment: a balance , 2004 .

[26]  C. Parmesan.  Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change , 2006 .

[27]  Dieter Gerten,et al.  Life‐history traits of lake plankton species may govern their phenological response to climate warming , 2006 .

[28]  Ulrich Sommer,et al.  The PEG-model of seasonal succession of planktonic events in fresh waters , 1986, Archiv für Hydrobiologie.

[29]  Thomas Mehner,et al.  Influence of spring warming on the predation rate of underyearling fish on Daphnia– a deterministic simulation approach , 2000 .

[30]  G. Yohe,et al.  A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems , 2003, Nature.

[31]  A. D. Buijse,et al.  Piscivory, Growth, and Size-Selective Mortality of Age 0 Pikeperch (Stizostedion lucioperca) , 1992 .

[32]  Dieter Gerten,et al.  Climate‐driven changes in spring plankton dynamics and the sensitivity of shallow polymictic lakes to the North Atlantic Oscillation , 2000 .

[33]  Marten Scheffer,et al.  PISCATOR, an individual-based model to analyze the dynamics of lake fish communities , 2002 .

[34]  E. Donk,et al.  Short-term and long-term effects of zooplanktivorous fish removal in a shallow lake: a synthesis of 15 years of data from Lake Zwemlust , 2002 .

[35]  Marten Scheffer,et al.  Can overwintering versus diapausing strategy in Daphnia determine match–mismatch events in zooplankton–algae interactions? , 2006, Oecologia.

[36]  Thomas Hintze,et al.  Effects of ice duration on plankton succession during spring in a shallow polymictic lake , 1999 .

[37]  R. Kirkwood,et al.  SEASONAL-VARIATION IN GROWTH, MORTALITY AND FAT STORES OF ROACH AND PERCH IN LOUGH-NEAGH, NORTHERN-IRELAND , 1995 .

[38]  A. Rijnsdorp,et al.  Effects of climate change on growth of 0-group sole and plaice , 2008 .

[39]  W. Mooij,et al.  Growth of 0+ Roach (Rutilus Rutilus) in Relation to Temperature and Size in a Shallow Eutrophic Lake - Comparison of Field and Laboratory Observations , 1990 .

[40]  Dieter Gerten,et al.  Differences in the persistency of the North Atlantic Oscillation signal among lakes , 2001 .

[41]  T. Blenckner,et al.  Changes of the plankton spring outburst related to the North Atlantic Oscillation , 1999 .

[42]  Lars-Anders Hansson,et al.  A behavioral cascade: Top‐predator induced behavioral shifts in planktivorous fish and zooplankton , 2003 .

[43]  D. Straile,et al.  Complex effects of winter warming on the physicochemical characteristics of a deep lake , 2003 .

[44]  P. Romare,et al.  Growth of larval and juvenile perch: the importance of diet and fish density , 2000 .

[45]  J. Benndorf,et al.  Climate-driven warming during spring destabilises a Daphnia population: a mechanistic food web approach , 2007, Oecologia.

[46]  D. Schindler,et al.  Variation in spatial and temporal gradients in zooplankton spring development: the effect of climatic factors , 2005 .

[47]  L. Hansson,et al.  Diet shift in fish following competitive release , 1999 .

[48]  O. Anneville,et al.  Twenty years of spatially coherent deepwater warming in lakes across Europe related to the North Atlantic Oscillation , 2006 .

[49]  L. Hansson,et al.  The impact of larval and juvenile fish on zooplankton and algal dynamics , 1999 .

[50]  W. Mooij,et al.  Formation of year-class strength in the bream population in the shallow eutrophic Lake Tjeukemeer. , 1996 .

[51]  Wolf M. Mooij,et al.  Variation in abundance and survival of fish larvae in shallow eutrophic lake Tjeukemeer , 1996, Environmental Biology of Fishes.

[52]  Dietmar Straile,et al.  The North Atlantic Oscillation and plankton dynamics in two European lakes –‐ two variations on a general theme , 2000 .

[53]  T. Valtonen,et al.  Size-dependent over-winter mortality of young-of-the-year roach, Rutilus rutilus , 1997, Environmental Biology of Fishes.

[54]  M. Scheffer,et al.  Climatic warming causes regime shifts in lake food webs , 2001 .

[55]  D. G. George,et al.  The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of four lakes in the English Lake District , 2004 .

[56]  C. Parmesan.  Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming , 2007 .

[57]  Stephan Hülsmann,et al.  The impact of climate change on lakes in the Netherlands: a review , 2005, Aquatic Ecology.

[58]  H. Tuomenvirta,et al.  GCM-based regional temperature and precipitation change estimates for Europe under four SRES scenarios applying a super-ensemble pattern-scaling method , 2007 .

[59]  S. Hülsmann,et al.  Predicting the effect of climate change on temperate shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake , 2007, Hydrobiologia.

[60]  D. Lüthi,et al.  The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves , 2004, Nature.