Optimal timing of the development of innovative goods with generation — an empirical analysis focusing on Canon's printer series 1The opinions in this paper are those of the authors and do not represent the official opinion of Canon Inc. 1

Abstract It is generally observed in innovation in manufacturing goods that new innovation is conducted successively by making dramatic improvements on prevailing innovation. This is also the case in Canon's core innovative goods, printers, which currently share 50% of its total sales. Triggered by the development of the large laser beam printer in the middle 1970s, Canon achieved successive development of the new generation of printers including the laser beam printer in the middle 1980s and the bubble jet printer in the 1990s. Canon's success in the development and introduction of the printer technology can be attributed to the optimal timing of the switching from existing technology to new generation technology. However, this process is part of a firm's confidential strategy and is generally unveiled. In light of the significance of the identification of this switching process, this paper, by applying an epidemic function approach, attempts to elucidate the development trajectory of each respective printer over the three generations. On the basis of this trajectory elucidation, this investigation identifies the interactions among respective technology generations, timing and tempo of development as well as the introduction and diffusion of respective technologies. The purpose of this work is to provide insight into the development of new innovative goods with a development pattern similar to the optical card.