The evolutionary ecology of technological innovations

Technological evolution has been compared to biological evolution by many authors over the last two centuries. As a parallel experiment of innovation involving economic, historical, and social components, artifacts define a universe of evolving properties that displays episodes of diversification and extinction. Here, we critically review previous work comparing the two types of evolution. Like biological evolution, technological evolution is driven by descent with variation and selection, and includes tinkering, convergence, and contingency. At the same time, there are essential differences that make the two types of evolution quite distinct. Major distinctions are illustrated by current specific examples, including the evolution of cornets and the historical dynamics of information technologies. Due to their fast and rich development, the later provide a unique opportunity to study technological evolution at all scales with unprecedented resolution. Despite the presence of patterns suggesting convergent trends between man-made systems end biological ones, they provide examples of planned design that have no equivalent with natural evolution.

[1]  Steven Johnson,et al.  Where Good Ideas Come From , 2010 .

[2]  S. Winter,et al.  In search of useful theory of innovation , 1993 .

[3]  S. Winter,et al.  In search of useful theory of innovation , 1993 .

[4]  J. Doyne Farmer.  Dynamics of technological development in the energy sector , 2007 .

[5]  J. Fowler,et al.  Distance Measures for Dynamic Citation Networks , 2009, 0909.1819.

[6]  Jeffery L. Meikle.  Edison's electric light : biography of an invention , 1986 .

[7]  N. Eldredge,et al.  Phylogenetics and Material Cultural Evolution , 2007, Current Anthropology.

[8]  Bernard Gress,et al.  Properties of the USPTO patent citation network: 1963-2002 , 2010 .

[9]  Stuart A. Kauffman,et al.  The origins of order , 1993 .

[10]  Ricard V Solé,et al.  Distributed robustness in cellular networks: insights from synthetic evolved circuits , 2009, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[11]  R. F. Cancho,et al.  Topology of technology graphs: small world patterns in electronic circuits. , 2001, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[12]  Béla Nagy,et al.  Superexponential long-term trends in information technology , 2011 .

[13]  S Forrest,et al.  Genetic algorithms , 1996, CSUR.

[14]  Dale S. Niederhauser,et al.  The Nature of Technology , 2013 .

[15]  George Dyson,et al.  Darwin among the machines , 1998, The Mathematical Gazette.

[16]  Leon Goldovsky,et al.  The net of life: reconstructing the microbial phylogenetic network. , 2005, Genome research.

[17]  Ricard V Solé,et al.  Diversity, competition, extinction: the ecophysics of language change , 2010, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[18]  Stuart A. Kauffman,et al.  At Home in the Universe , 1995 .

[19]  Raymond C. Kurzweil,et al.  The Singularity Is Near , 2018, The Infinite Desire for Growth.

[20]  A. Hopkins,et al.  Navigating chemical space for biology and medicine , 2004, Nature.

[21]  Harold A. Linstone,et al.  Technological forecasting and social change , 2011 .

[22]  Jan van den Ende,et al.  Technological transformations in history: how the computer regime grew out of existing computing regimes , 1999 .

[23]  Laura Kubatko,et al.  Diusion Models in Population Genetics , 2015 .

[24]  W. Arthur,et al.  Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy , 1996 .

[25]  Michele Marchesi,et al.  Power-Laws in a Large Object-Oriented Software System , 2007, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering.

[26]  J. S. Rowlinson,et al.  PHASE TRANSITIONS , 2021, Topics in Statistical Mechanics.

[27]  Jean E. Sammet,et al.  Programming languages - history and fundamentals , 1969, Prentice-Hall series in automatic computation.

[28]  Peter Schuster.  Untamable curiosity, innovation, discovery, and bricolage: Are we doomed to progress to ever increasing complexity?: The Simply Complex , 2006 .

[29]  Araújo,et al.  An Evolutionary theory of economic change , 1983 .

[30]  A. Wilkins.  Between “design” and “bricolage”: Genetic networks, levels of selection, and adaptive evolution , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[31]  R. Solé,et al.  Are network motifs the spandrels of cellular complexity? , 2006, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[32]  Peter Schuster,et al.  Untamable curiosity, innovation, discovery, and bricolage: Are we doomed to progress to ever increasing complexity? , 2006, Complex..

[33]  P. Schuster,et al.  From sequences to shapes and back: a case study in RNA secondary structures , 1994, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[34]  Christopher R. Myers,et al.  Software systems as complex networks: structure, function, and evolvability of software collaboration graphs , 2003, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[35]  Devendra Sahal,et al.  Patterns of Technological Innovation , 1984 .

[36]  P. Schuster.  How does complexity arise in evolution: Nature's recipe for mastering scarcity, abundance, and unpredictability , 1996 .

[37]  Serge Demeyer,et al.  Software Evolution , 2010 .

[38]  Philip E. Auerswald,et al.  The Production Recipes Approach to Modeling Technological Innovation: An Application to Learning by Doing , 1998 .

[39]  M. Kimura.  Difiusion models in population genetics , 1964 .

[40]  Sergi Valverde,et al.  Network motifs in computational graphs: a case study in software architecture. , 2005, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[41]  Karthik Raman,et al.  The evolvability of programmable hardware , 2010, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[42]  N. Eldredge.  Paleontology and Cornets: Thoughts on Material Cultural Evolution , 2011, Evolution: Education and Outreach.

[43]  G. Cowan,et al.  Complexity Metaphors, Models, and Reality , 1994 .

[44]  G.E. Moore,et al.  Cramming More Components Onto Integrated Circuits , 1998, Proceedings of the IEEE.

[45]  R. Solé,et al.  Spontaneous emergence of modularity in cellular networks , 2008, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[46]  G. Wagner,et al.  The road to modularity , 2007, Nature Reviews Genetics.

[47]  Sergi Valverde,et al.  Topology and evolution of technology innovation networks. , 2007, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[48]  Stefan Thurner,et al.  Phase transition in random catalytic networks. , 2005, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[49]  Bart Verspagen,et al.  Mapping Technological Trajectories as Patent citation Networks: a Study on the History of Fuel Cell Research , 2007, Adv. Complex Syst..

[50]  César A. Hidalgo,et al.  The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations , 2007, Science.

[51]  R. Solow.  A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth , 1956 .

[52]  F. Jacob,et al.  Evolution and tinkering. , 1977, Science.

[53]  Dirk Stroobandt,et al.  The interpretation and application of Rent's rule , 2000, IEEE Trans. Very Large Scale Integr. Syst..

[54]  W. Brian Arthur,et al.  The Nature of Technology: What it Is and How it Evolves , 2009 .

[55]  Stefan Thurner,et al.  Towards a physics of evolution: critical diversity dynamics at the edges of collapse and bursts of diversification. , 2007, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[56]  Barruquer Moner.  IX. References , 1971 .

[57]  Simon W. Moore,et al.  Efficient Physical Embedding of Topologically Complex Information Processing Networks in Brains and Computer Circuits , 2010, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[58]  Matthew J. Streeter,et al.  Evolving inventions. , 2003, Scientific American.

[59]  Luigi Marengo,et al.  Industry dynamics in complex product spaces: An evolutionary model , 2010 .

[60]  George Basalla,et al.  The Evolution of Technology: Selection (2): Social and Cultural Factors , 1989 .

[61]  W. Fontana,et al.  Neutrality in Technological Landscapes , 2004 .

[62]  M. Lynch.  The evolution of genetic networks by non-adaptive processes , 2007, Nature Reviews Genetics.

[63]  Bart Verspagen,et al.  Patents, citations, and innovations , 2004 .

[64]  Niles Eldredge,et al.  Evolution in the marketplace , 1997 .

[65]  Dorothea Heiss-Czedik,et al.  An Introduction to Genetic Algorithms. , 1997, Artificial Life.

[66]  Henry Petroski,et al.  The Evolution of Useful Things , 1992, Symposium on Designing Interactive Systems.

[67]  Erez Lieberman Aiden,et al.  Quantitative Analysis of Culture Using Millions of Digitized Books , 2010, Science.

[68]  Kevin D. Kelly.  What Technology Wants , 2010 .

[69]  S. Winter,et al.  An evolutionary theory of economic change , 1983 .

[70]  Vladimir Makarenkov,et al.  From a Phylogenetic Tree to a Reticulated Network , 2004, J. Comput. Biol..

[71]  Arie Rip,et al.  Technological Change , 2019, World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains.

[72]  W. Martin,et al.  Getting a better picture of microbial evolution en route to a network of genomes , 2009, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[73]  J. Farmer.  Market Force, Ecology, and Evolution , 1998, adap-org/9812005.

[74]  S. Kauffman,et al.  Towards a general theory of adaptive walks on rugged landscapes. , 1987, Journal of theoretical biology.

[75]  J. Lawton,et al.  Organisms as ecosystem engineers , 1994 .

[76]  J. Ziman.  Technological Innovation as an Evolutionary Process , 2003 .

[77]  L. Argote,et al.  Learning Curves in Manufacturing , 1990, Science.

[78]  William F. Ogburn,et al.  Are Inventions Inevitable? A Note on Social Evolution , 1922 .

[79]  Christopher L. Magee,et al.  A functional approach for studying technological progress: Application to information technology ☆ , 2006 .

[80]  R. Solé,et al.  Selection, Tinkering, and Emergence in Complex Networks - Crossing the Land of Tinkering , 2002 .

[81]  Peter Schuster.  Untamable Curiosity, Innovation, Discovery, and Bricolage , 2006 .

[82]  M. Huynen,et al.  Neutral evolution of mutational robustness. , 1999, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[83]  Peter Schuster,et al.  How does complexity arise in evolution , 1996 .

[84]  ConcasGiulio,et al.  Power-Laws in a Large Object-Oriented Software System , 2007 .

[85]  R. Ferrer i Cancho,et al.  Scale-free networks from optimal design , 2002, cond-mat/0204344.

[86]  Geoffrey B. West,et al.  Scaling in Biology , 2000 .

[87]  Jan Venselaar,et al.  DESIGN RULES , 1999 .

[88]  Sidney Redner,et al.  Role of design complexity in technology improvement , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[89]  D. Erwin.  Macroevolution of ecosystem engineering, niche construction and diversity. , 2008, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[90]  Wolfgang Polak,et al.  The evolution of technology within a simple computer model , 2006, Complex..

[91]  Melanie Mitchell,et al.  Complexity - A Guided Tour , 2009 .

[92]  P Zamparo,et al.  From bipedalism to bicyclism: evolution in energetics and biomechanics of historic bicycles , 2001, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[93]  M. Huynen,et al.  Smoothness within ruggedness: the role of neutrality in adaptation. , 1996, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[94]  Mark E Nelson,et al.  Brain maps and parallel computers , 1990, Trends in Neurosciences.

[95]  K. Frenken.  A complexity approach to innovation networks. The case of the aircraft industry (1909-1997) , 2000 .

[96]  William Martin,et al.  Networks uncover hidden lexical borrowing in Indo-European language evolution , 2010, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

[97]  P. Schuster.  The Origin and Processing of Biological Information , 2001 .

[98]  Claus O. Wilke,et al.  Adaptive evolution on neutral networks , 2001, Bulletin of mathematical biology.

[99]  Ilkka Tuomi,et al.  Networks of Innovation , 2002 .

[100]  Leo Schrattenholzer,et al.  Learning rates for energy technologies , 2001 .