Incorporating fractal concepts into equations of attrition for military conflicts

Using an agent-based model as a ‘battlefield laboratory’, we explore equations of combat attrition which extend beyond the conventional Lanchester equations and which endeavour to encapsulate the more complex aspects of warfare. Our approach compares predictions from candidate attrition equations with casualty data generated artificially from an agent-based model. For situations where the initial regimented structure of the fighting forces breaks down, introducing fractal concepts into the attrition equations proves effective at encapsulating complex aspects of the battle; with details in the time dependence of the casualty data able to be reproduced. Furthermore, measuring the fractal dimension of a fighting force's spatial distribution on the battlefield provides a sensitive probe of the combatants’ behaviour. Precise times at which key events occur during a battle can be pinpointed. This study furthers the body of work which considers warfare as a complex adaptive system and where fractal-like structures are expected to emerge.