Peaks, Slopes, Canyons and Plateaus: Identifying Technology Trends Throughout the Life Cycle

A novel domain-independent approach to technology trend monitoring is presented in the paper. It is based on the ontology of a technology trend, hype cycles methodology, and semantic indicators which provide evidence of a maturity level of a technology. This approach forms the basis for implementation of text-mining software tools. Algorithms behind these tools allow users to escape from getting too general or garbage results which make it impossible to identify promising technologies at early stages (early detection, weak signals). Besides, these algorithms provide high-quality results in extraction of complex multiword terms which correspond to technological concepts forming a trend. Methodology and software developed as a result of this study are applicable to various industries with minor adjustments and require no deep expert knowledge from a user.

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