Analysis of dry/wet conditions in the Gan River Basin, China, and their association with large-scale atmospheric circulation

Abstract Droughts and floods are natural phenomena that occur when water availability is significantly below or above normal levels over a specific period. In recent years, the Gan River Basin has frequently been threatened by droughts and floods, and it is important to evaluate the characteristics of dry/wet conditions for better water resource management and disaster mitigation in this region. On the basis of precipitation and temperature data for the period 1964–2013 from 40 meteorological stations across the basin, the variability of dry/wet conditions was analyzed using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In addition, the standardized streamflow index (SSI) and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns calculated from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were used to further explore and evaluate temporal variations, spatial patterns, and possible mechanism responsible for the formation of dry/wet conditions in the basin. The results indicated that robust coefficients between monthly SSI and SPEI exist at multiple timescales. The best correlation coefficients were found at timescales of 2–3 months, which better reflect the intensity and magnitude of seasonal dry/wet conditions. Application of a 3-month SPEI for the dry (July–September) and wet (April–June) seasons indicated that severe dry/wet episodes were easy to occur in the northern part of the basin. The difference between composites of anomalous dry/wet seasons shows that both a positive height anomaly at 500 hPa and a very little water vapor flux influence the basin during the dry season of anomalous years, which can lead to the occurrence of drought events in the basin. However, during the wet season of anomalous years, geopotential height anomalies caused by areas of high pressure in the south (South China Sea) and areas of low pressure in the north (Mongolia), are responsible for the transport of copious amounts of water vapor from both the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. Under these conditions, the negative values of water vapor flux divergence dominate the basin and bring abundant precipitation, which often causes calamitous flood events.