Simulating Fire and Forest Dynamics for a Landscape Fuel Treatment Project in the Sierra Nevada

We evaluated an actual landscape fuel treatment project that was designed by local US Forest Service managers in the northern Sierra Nevada. We modeled the effects of this project on reducing landscape-level fire behavior at multiple time steps, up to nearly 30 years beyond treatment implementation. In addition, we modeled planned treatments under multiple diameter-limited thinning scenarios to assess potential impacts on fuel treatment effectiveness. The planned fuel treatments reduced modeled conditional burn probabilities substan- tially across the landscape relative to those for a scenario with no simulated treatments. This reduction relative to that for the no treatment landscape was evident approximately 20 years after simulated treatment implemen- tation. Although diameter-limited thinning scenarios resulted in different residual forest stand structures, we detected no real differences in modeled landscape-level burn probabilities. The modeling adaptations we made with respect to fuel model selection and simulated ingrowth/regeneration over simulated time, as well as incorporation of variable winds in fire simulations, collectively contribute to a robust analysis of the study area. FOR .S CI. 57(2):77-88.

[1]  Scott L. Stephens,et al.  Challenges and Approaches in Planning Fuel Treatments across Fire-Excluded Forested Landscapes , 2010, Journal of Forestry.

[2]  C. Skinner,et al.  Probability of tree survival after wildfire in an interior pine forest of northern California: Effects of thinning and prescribed fire , 2007 .

[3]  Jw Van Wagdendonk,et al.  Physical properties of woody fuel particles of Sierra Nevada conifers , 1996 .

[4]  G. De’ath,et al.  CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREES: A POWERFUL YET SIMPLE TECHNIQUE FOR ECOLOGICAL DATA ANALYSIS , 2000 .

[5]  F. Albini.  Estimating Wildfire Behavior and Effects , 1976 .

[6]  H. Safford,et al.  Effects of fuel treatments on fire severity in an area of wildland-urban interface, Angora Fire, Lake Tahoe Basin, California , 2009 .

[7]  B. Davis,et al.  Quantifying the consequences of fire suppression in two California national parks , 2009 .

[8]  M. Finney.  Design of Regular Landscape Fuel Treatment Patterns for Modifying Fire Growth and Behavior , 2001, Forest Science.

[9]  P. Hessburg,et al.  Dry forests and wildland fires of the inland Northwest USA: Contrasting the landscape ecology of the pre-settlement and modern eras , 2005 .

[10]  Jan W. Van Wagtendonk,et al.  Use of a Deterministic Fire Growth Model to Test Fuel Treatments , 1996 .

[11]  Philip N. Omi,et al.  Performance of Fuel Treatments Subjected to Wildfires , 2003 .

[12]  Charles W. McHugh,et al.  Stand- and landscape-level effects of prescribed burning on two Arizona wildfires , 2005 .

[13]  Van Wagner.  The Line Intersect Method in Forest Fuel Sampling , 1968 .

[14]  Scott L. Stephens,et al.  Experimental fuel treatment impacts on forest structure, potential fire behavior, and predicted tree mortality in a California mixed conifer forest , 2005 .

[15]  S. Stephens,et al.  FEDERAL FOREST‐FIRE POLICY IN THE UNITED STATES , 2005 .

[16]  M. Finney.  Fire growth using minimum travel time methods , 2002 .

[17]  R. Harrod,et al.  Thinning and prescribed fire effects on overstory tree and snag structure in dry coniferous forests of the interior Pacific Northwest , 2009 .

[18]  Jason J. Moghaddas,et al.  Fire treatment effects on vegetation structure, fuels, and potential fire severity in western U.S. forests. , 2009, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[19]  Carl N. Skinner,et al.  Basic principles of forest fuel reduction treatments , 2005 .

[20]  D. Peterson,et al.  Fuel treatments alter the effects of wildfire in a mixed-evergreen forest, Oregon, USA , 2005 .

[21]  Nicholas L. Crookston,et al.  An overview of the fire and fuels extension to the forest vegetation simulator , 2000 .

[22]  M. Finney,et al.  Modeling wildfire risk to northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) habitat in Central Oregon, USA , 2007 .

[23]  Nicholas L. Crookston,et al.  Incorporating landscape fuel treatment modeling into the Forest Vegetation Simulator , 2008 .

[24]  Nicholas L. Crookston,et al.  User's guide to the stand prognosis model / , 1982 .

[25]  Carl N. Skinner,et al.  Landscape-level strategies for forest fuel management. , 1996 .

[26]  Scott L. Stephens,et al.  Fire regimes of mixed conifer forests in the north-central Sierra Nevada at multiple spatial scales , 2004 .

[27]  Philip N. Omi,et al.  The use of shaded fuelbreaks in landscape fire management. , 2000 .

[28]  Mark A. Finney,et al.  A computational method for optimising fuel treatment locations , 2006 .

[29]  J. W. van Wagtendonk,et al.  Fuel bed characteristics of Sierra Nevada conifers , 1998 .

[30]  S. Stephens.  Fire history differences in adjacent Jeffrey pine and upper montane forests in the eastern Sierra Nevada , 2001 .

[31]  Charles W. McHugh,et al.  A simulation study of thinning and fuel treatments on a wildland–urban interface in eastern Oregon, USA , 2007 .

[32]  James K. Brown.  Handbook for inventorying downed woody material , 1974 .

[33]  Scott L. Stephens,et al.  Fuel treatment effects on modeled landscape- level fire behavior in the northern Sierra Nevada , 2010 .

[34]  Charles W. McHugh,et al.  Simulation of long-term landscape-level fuel treatment effects on large wildfires , 2006 .

[35]  Carl N. Skinner,et al.  The influence of fuels treatment and landscape arrangement on simulated fire behavior, Southern Cascade range, California , 2008 .

[36]  G. E. Dixon.  Essential FVS: A User's Guide to the Forest Vegetation Simulator , 2007 .

[37]  Nicole M. Vaillant,et al.  A comparison of landscape fuel treatment strategies to mitigate wildland fire risk in the urban interface and preserve old forest structure , 2010 .

[38]  Charles F. Cooper,et al.  Changes in Vegetation, Structure, and Growth of Southwestern Pine Forests since White Settlement , 1960 .

[39]  Jason J. Moghaddas,et al.  A fuel treatment reduces fire severity and increases suppression efficiency in a mixed conifer forest , 2007 .

[40]  P. Fulé,et al.  Pre-wildfire fuel treatments affect long-term ponderosa pine forest dynamics , 2007 .