Future adjustments of population to resources in Japan.

IN order to say anything worth while on this topic it will be necessary to make some brief and, therefore, rather dogmatic statements regarding the population and resources of Japan today and to guess at future developments in certain fields, which guesses must be expressed rather positively because of time limits, although I by no means feel as certain of their correctness as these statements may indicate. In the first place, in the ensuing decade the population of Japan will probably increase by at least 10 million, provided the following conditions are fulfilled: (1) that in some way the essentials of existence will continue to be supplied to the people of Japan in approximately the present per capita amounts; (2) that the public health services will continue to operate about as efficiently as at present; and (3) that the decline in the birth rate during the next ten years will not be more than about 40 per cent. If the decline should be less, as it well may be, while the two preceding conditions are met, the population growth will be greater than indicated above. In the second place, the food supply of Japan, which is already short of self-sufficiency by 15-20 per cent, is not likely to increase any faster than, if as fast as, the population, unless there is a large increase in the proportion of Irish and sweet potatoes in the Japanese diet. From the standpoint of the Japanese, this would constitute a decline in the level of living, although it need not constitute an added health hazard. It should be noted, however, that the variations in the production of root crops per acre due to variations in the weather and to the injuries inflicted on them by diseases and pests, are likely to be greater than the variations in the annual yields of the staple grain crops. This is especially likely where these root crops are not irrigated and the farmers are not experienced in