Determining the Number of Iterations for Monte Carlo Simulations of Weapon Effectiveness

Abstract : Many weapon effectiveness tools are implemented using a Monte Carlo simulation approach since closed form solutions are too mathematically intractable to compute. A question that usually arises in connection with such simulations is this: how many iterations of a particular Monte Carlo simulation are needed? This report proposed the probability-based approach to computing effectiveness measures for better feedback to the user regarding the relationship between the number of iterations executed and confidence measures associated with the result. (4 tables, 4 figures)