Prediction of Road Handling Cost Using Markov Chain Method in Regency Road Network

Road is an infrastructure that has an important role in supporting economic growth and social welfare, because the distribution of goods and services as well as community mobility is mostly conducted through road infrastructure. In the service life cycle, road infrastructure will continue to experience a decline in conditions that usually begins with the appearance of damage on the road pavement, so that need to be conducted well planned and programmed road management in order to slow down the speed of decline in road pavement conditions and maintain conditions at a reasonable level. In an effort to obtain the optimal road handling program planning, road managers need information on changes in road pavement conditions for years to come, either changes due to conducted the handling or not conducted the handling on the road pavement damage. Therefore, an effective method is needed to determine future road performance, by predicting or estimating the development of road pavement conditions. In terms of pavement management, road operators can implement a pavement management system (PMS) which starts from the stage of planning, design, construction, service evaluation, as well as maintenance and rehabilitation [1]. Abstract: The use of budget in road management must be effective and efficient by providing the optimal pavement performance values. The problem in cost optimization of the road handling programs in West Bangka Regency is the lack of information regarding with the changes in conditions that will occur in the future due to the pattern of road handling that carried out, so that required a method that capable to predict road pavement conditions. The purpose of this study is to determine the cost of future road handling programs based on the value of road pavement conditions from the prediction results using Markov chain method. Modeling requires an initial condition vector and a Transition Probability Matrix (TPM). The main data used in the development of this model is pavement condition data and road handling history data for 2012 2017. The application of the Markov chain model on the road network in West Bangka Regency in the period of 2018 2022 shows a drastic decrease in pavement conditions, if not conducted the handling action on the road damage, with a change in the value of Good (B) condition from 63.7% in 2017 become 12.3% in 2022. Based on a simulation of a road management program during this period, produce an estimated cost of Rp. 45.338.471.000 by providing a change in the value of Good (B) conditions at the end of 2022 by 58.6%. The results of the study are expected could assist road managers in the context of the preparation of an optimal road management program.