Longitudinal stage profiles forecasting in rivers for flash floods

Abstract A flash flood routing model with artificial neural networks predictions was developed for stage profiles forecasting. The artificial neural network models were used to predict the 1–3 h lead time river stages at gauge stations along a river. The predictions were taken as interior boundaries in the flash flood routing model for the forecast of longitudinal stage profiles, including the un-gauged sites of a whole river. The flash flood routing model was based on the dynamic wave equations with discretization processes of the four-point finite difference method. Five typhoon events were applied to calibrate the rainfall-stage model and the other three events were simulated to verify the model’s capability. The results revealed that the flash flood river routing model conjunction with artificial neural networks can provide accurate river stages for flood forecasting.

[1]  Y. Hong,et al.  Merging multiple precipitation sources for flash flood forecasting , 2007 .

[2]  Antonio Advino Sabino,et al.  Flood management in Cape Verde. The case study of Praia , 1999 .

[3]  David T. Ford.  Flood-Warning Decision-Support System for Sacramento, California , 2001 .

[4]  Simon Haykin,et al.  Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation , 1998 .

[5]  Li-Chiu Chang,et al.  Real‐time recurrent learning neural network for stream‐flow forecasting , 2002 .

[6]  Ming-Hsi Hsu,et al.  Dynamic Routing Model with Real-Time Roughness Updating for Flood Forecasting , 2006 .

[7]  Michael Amein,et al.  IMPLICIT FLOOD ROUTING IN NATURAL CHANNELS , 1970 .

[8]  A. Soldati,et al.  River flood forecasting with a neural network model , 1999 .

[9]  Walter Collischonn,et al.  Predicting daily streamflow using rainfall forecasts, a simple loss module and unit hydrographs: Two Brazilian catchments , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[10]  K. P. Sudheer,et al.  A data‐driven algorithm for constructing artificial neural network rainfall‐runoff models , 2002 .

[11]  U. C. Kothyari,et al.  Modeling of the daily rainfall-runoff relationship with artificial neural network , 2004 .

[12]  Y. Najjar,et al.  Predicting catchment flow in a semi‐arid region via an artificial neural network technique , 2004 .

[13]  M. J. Diamantopoulou,et al.  A time delay artificial neural network approach for flow routing in a river system , 2006 .

[14]  I. Saavedra,et al.  Dynamic Wave Study of Flow in Tidal Channel System of San Juan River , 2003 .

[15]  Ming-Hsi Hsu,et al.  Flood routing with real-time stage correction method for flash flood forecasting in the Tanshui River, Taiwan , 2003 .