Temperature responses to spectral solar variability on decadal time scales

Two scenarios of spectral solar forcing, namely Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM)‐based out‐of‐phase variations and conventional in‐phase variations, are input to a time‐dependent radiative‐convective model (RCM), and to the GISS modelE. Both scenarios and models give maximum temperature responses in the upper stratosphere, decreasing to the surface. Upper stratospheric peak‐to‐peak responses to out‐of‐phase forcing are ∼0.6 K and ∼0.9 K in RCM and modelE, ∼5 times larger than responses to in‐phase forcing. Stratospheric responses are in‐phase with TSI and UV variations, and resemble HALOE observed 11‐year temperature variations. For in‐phase forcing, ocean mixed layer response lags surface air response by ∼2 years, and is ∼0.06 K compared to ∼0.14 K for atmosphere. For out‐of‐phase forcing, lags are similar, but surface responses are significantly smaller. For both scenarios, modelE surface responses are less than 0.1 K in the tropics, and display similar patterns over oceanic regions, but complex responses over land.

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