Fostering cooperation in power asymmetrical water systems by the use of direct release rules and index-based insurance schemes

Abstract In river basin systems, power asymmetry is often responsible of inefficient and unbalanced water allocations. Climate change and anthropogenic pressure will possibly exacerbate such disparities as the dominant party controls an increasingly limited shared resource. In this context, the deployment of cooperation mechanisms giving greater consideration to a balanced distribution of the benefits, while improving system-wide efficiency, may be desirable. This often implies the intervention of a third party (e.g., the river basin water authority) imposing normative constraints (e.g., a minimum release) on the party in the dominant position. However, this imposition will be more acceptable to the dominant party if coupled with some form of compensation. For a public agency, compensation may be burdensome, especially when the allowance is triggered by natural events whose timing and magnitude are highly uncertain. In this context, index-based insurance contracts may represent a viable alternative and reduce the cost of achieving socially desirable outcomes. In this paper, we develop a hybrid cooperation mechanism composed of i) a direct normative constraint imposed by a regulator, and ii) an indirect financial tool, an index-based insurance contract, to be used as a compensation measure. The approach is developed for the Lake Como multi-purpose water system, Italy: a complex Alpine river basin, supporting several hydropower reservoirs and finally flowing into a regulated lake which supplies water to several downstream uses, mostly irrigated agriculture. The system is characterized by a manifest geographic power asymmetry: the upstream hydropower companies are free to release their stored water in time irrespective of the timing of the downstream demands. This situation can lead to financial losses by the downstream users and undesirable social outcomes. Results suggest that financial instruments may offer a reliable and relatively inexpensive alternative to other forms of compensation, and thereby favor more balanced management of multi-purpose water systems characterized by power asymmetry. This finding is especially relevant in times when granting of licenses to use/withdrawal water are often being reviewed with attention to environmental protection and equity issues.

[1]  R. Mitchell,et al.  Situation Structure and Institutional Design: Reciprocity, Coercion, and Exchange , 2001, International Organization.

[2]  Upmanu Lall,et al.  A nonparametric stochastic approach for multisite disaggregation of annual to daily streamflow , 2010 .

[3]  Ünver,et al.  An Institutional Framework for Facilitating Cooperation in the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin , 2000 .

[4]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  A bottom‐up approach to identifying the maximum operational adaptive capacity of water resource systems to a changing climate , 2016 .

[5]  A. Castelletti,et al.  Assessing the value of cooperation and information exchange in large water resources systems by agent‐based optimization , 2013 .

[6]  M. Zeitoun,et al.  Hydro-hegemony – a framework for analysis of trans-boundary water conflicts , 2006 .

[7]  G. Characklis,et al.  Low natural gas prices and the financial cost of ramp rate restrictions at hydroelectric dams , 2017 .

[8]  J. Kehl HYDROPOLITICAL COMPLEXES AND ASYMMETRICAL POWER: CONFLICT, COOPERATION, AND GOVERNANCE OF INTERNATIONAL RIVER SYSTEMS , 2011 .

[9]  A. Tilmant,et al.  Restoring a flow regime through the coordinated operation of a multireservoir system: The case of the Zambezi River basin , 2010 .

[10]  Robert Mandel,et al.  Sources of International River Basin Disputes , 1992 .

[11]  Hedging with weather derivatives: a role for options in reducing basis risk , 2009 .

[12]  Kolli N. Rao Index based Crop Insurance , 2010 .

[13]  A. Gerlak,et al.  Navigating International River Disputes to Avert Conflict , 2009 .

[14]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  A coupled human–natural system to assess the operational value of weather and climate services for agriculture , 2017 .

[15]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  Universal approximators for direct policy search in multi-purpose water reservoir management: A comparative analysis , 2014 .

[16]  Charles C. Yang,et al.  Weather Derivatives and Weather Risk Management , 2005 .

[17]  P. Garcia,et al.  Basis Risk and Weather Hedging Effectiveness , 2008 .

[18]  Shaun S. Wang A Universal Framework for Pricing Financial and Insurance Risks , 2002, ASTIN Bulletin.

[19]  A. Elhance Hydropolitics: Grounds for Despair, Reasons for Hope , 2000 .

[20]  Patrick M. Reed,et al.  Borg: An Auto-Adaptive Many-Objective Evolutionary Computing Framework , 2013, Evolutionary Computation.

[21]  H. Alderman,et al.  Insurance Against Covariate Shocks: The Role of Index-Based Insurance in Social Protection in Low-Income Countries of Africa , 2007 .

[22]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  Water reservoir control under economic, social and environmental constraints , 2008, Autom..

[23]  Carlos Dionisio Pérez Blanco,et al.  Designing optimum insurance schemes to reduce water overexploitation during drought events: a case study of La Campiña, Guadalquivir River Basin, Spain , 2013 .

[24]  M. Miranda,et al.  Optimal Management of Runoff Reservoir Supply: The Case of Tono Reservoir in Northern Ghana , 2016 .

[25]  M. Zeitoun,et al.  Transboundary water interaction II: the influence of ‘soft’ power , 2011 .

[26]  Graham Evans,et al.  The Penguin dictionary of international relations , 1999 .

[27]  Dinar Negotiations and International Relations: A Framework for Hydropolitics , 2000 .

[28]  S. Mitchell,et al.  Fragmented Governance of International Rivers: Negotiating Bilateral versus Multilateral Treaties , 2011 .

[29]  P. Reed,et al.  Navigating financial and supply reliability tradeoffs in regional drought management portfolios , 2014 .

[30]  Daniel P. Loucks,et al.  Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation , 1982 .

[31]  Gregory W. Characklis,et al.  Mitigating hydrologic financial risk in hydropower generation using index-based financial instruments , 2015 .

[32]  Kaveh Madani,et al.  Game theory and water resources , 2010 .

[33]  S. Dinar,et al.  Assessing side-payment and cost-sharing patterns in international water agreements: The geographic and economic connection , 2006 .

[34]  Robert M. Townsend,et al.  Patterns of Rainfall Insurance Participation in Rural India , 2007 .

[35]  G. Guariso,et al.  Optimal Flow Allocation in the Zambezi River System , 1997 .

[36]  Sina Khatami,et al.  Nash-reinforcement learning (N-RL) for developing coordination strategies in non-transferable utility games , 2014, 2014 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC).

[37]  Amaury Tilmant,et al.  Economic valuation of benefits and costs associated with the coordinated development and management of the Zambezi river basin , 2012 .

[38]  Markus Herrmann,et al.  Sharing water and benefits in transboundary river basins , 2016 .

[39]  Keith H. Coble,et al.  Developing And Pricing Precipitation Insurance , 2001 .

[40]  D. McKinney,et al.  'Preface to' Bridges Over Water: Understanding Transboundary Water Conflict, Negotiation and Cooperation , 2007 .

[41]  B. Goodwin Problems with Market Insurance in Agriculture , 2001 .

[42]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  Curses, Tradeoffs, and Scalable Management: Advancing Evolutionary Multiobjective Direct Policy Search to Improve Water Reservoir Operations , 2016 .

[43]  Doğan Altinbilek Development and management of the Euphrates–Tigris basin , 2004 .

[44]  Barry J. Barnett,et al.  Weather Index Insurance for Agriculture and Rural Areas in Lower-Income Countries , 2007 .

[45]  Browder An Analysis of the Negotiations for the 1995 Mekong Agreement , 2000 .

[46]  Alemu,et al.  The Process of Negotiation Over International Water Disputes:The Case of the Nile Basin , 2000 .

[47]  Marwa Daoudy Asymmetric Power: Negotiating Water in the Euphrates and Tigris , 2009 .

[48]  J. Skees,et al.  Poverty Traps and Index Based Risk Transfer Products , 2006 .

[49]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  A diagnostic assessment of evolutionary algorithms for multi-objective surface water reservoir control , 2016 .

[50]  Casey Brown,et al.  Managing hydroclimatological risk to water supply with option contracts and reservoir index insurance , 2007 .

[51]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  Many‐objective reservoir policy identification and refinement to reduce policy inertia and myopia in water management , 2014 .

[52]  Dale Whittington,et al.  Why have some countries on international rivers been successful negotiating treaties? A global perspective , 2004 .

[53]  J. Skees,et al.  Using Irrigation Insurance to Improve Water Usage of the Rio Mayo Irrigation System in Northwestern Mexico , 2008 .

[54]  M. Espey,et al.  International bilateral water treaty formation , 2004 .

[55]  F. Pianosi,et al.  A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale , 2011 .

[56]  Shaun S. Wang A CLASS OF DISTORTION OPERATORS FOR PRICING FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE RISKS , 2000 .

[57]  W. Mead America's Sticky Power , 2004 .

[58]  Daniel E. Osgood,et al.  Index insurance and climate risk: prospects for development and disaster management , 2009 .

[59]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  Multiagent Systems and Distributed Constraint Reasoning for Regulatory Mechanism Design in Water Management , 2015 .

[60]  A. Janvry,et al.  Index-based weather insurance for developing countries: A review of evidence and a set of propositions for up-scaling , 2014 .

[61]  Rodolfo Soncini-Sessa,et al.  Combining metamodelling and stochastic dynamic programming for the design of reservoir release policies , 2010, Environ. Model. Softw..

[62]  J. Skees Innovations in Index Insurance for the Poor in Lower Income Countries , 2008, Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.

[63]  C. Turvey Weather Derivatives for Specific Event Risks in Agriculture , 2001 .

[64]  Shlomi Dinar Power Asymmetry and Negotiations in International River Basins , 2009 .

[65]  J. Nye Public Diplomacy and Soft Power , 2008 .

[66]  A. Dinar,et al.  Cooperative Game Theory and its Application to Natural, Environmental, and Water Resource Issues: 3. Application to Water Resources , 2006 .

[67]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  Optimizing Watershed Management by Coordinated Operation of Storing Facilities , 2013 .

[68]  A. Castelletti,et al.  A coupled human‐natural systems analysis of irrigated agriculture under changing climate , 2016 .

[69]  W. Kinzelbach,et al.  The cost of noncooperation in international river basins , 2012 .

[70]  Gregory W. Characklis,et al.  Natural gas price uncertainty and the cost-effectiveness of hedging against low hydropower revenues caused by drought , 2015 .

[71]  M. Miranda,et al.  Innovations in Agricultural and Natural Disaster Insurance , 2001 .