Forecasting Migration: Selected Models and Methods

In the current chapter, a survey of various models and methods used in migration predictions to date is offered. The rationale is that socio-economic predictions can be based not only on general, well-grounded laws and theories, but also on descriptive models designed to suit specific research questions. The presented overview follows a distinction between deterministic and probabilistic approaches, presented respectively in Sections 4.1 and 4.2, depending on the way the uncertainty issue is treated. The presented models and methods are finally compared and evaluated from the point of view of their usefulness for the purpose of the current and possible future studies.

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