Tools and methods in participatory modeling: Selecting the right tool for the job

Various tools and methods are used in participatory modelling, at different stages of the process and for different purposes. The diversity of tools and methods can create challenges for stakeholders and modelers when selecting the ones most appropriate for their projects. We offer a systematic overview, assessment, and categorization of methods to assist modelers and stakeholders with their choices and decisions. Most available literature provides little justification or information on the reasons for the use of particular methods or tools in a given study. In most of the cases, it seems that the prior experience and skills of the modelers had a dominant effect on the selection of the methods used. While we have not found any real evidence of this approach being wrong, we do think that putting more thought into the method selection process and choosing the most appropriate method for the project can produce better results. Based on expert opinion and a survey of modelers engaged in participatory processes, we offer practical guidelines to improve decisions about method selection at different stages of the participatory modeling process.

[1]  T. Lynam,et al.  A review of tools for incorporating community knowledge, preferences, and values into decision making in natural resources management , 2007 .

[2]  Rebecca Jordan,et al.  Using fuzzy cognitive mapping as a participatory approach to analyze change, preferred states, and perceived resilience of social-ecological systems , 2015 .

[3]  Katherine A. Daniell,et al.  Boundary matters: the potential of system dynamics to support sustainability? , 2017 .

[4]  Osonde Osoba,et al.  Improving Decision Support for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control , 2016 .

[5]  Koshy Varghese,et al.  Participatory Model Calibration for Improving Resource Management Systems: Case Study of Rainwater Harvesting in an Indian Village , 2015 .

[6]  S. Vetrivel,et al.  APPLICATIONS OF GRAPH THEORY IN COMPUTER SCIENCE AN OVERVIEW , 2010 .

[7]  C. Prell,et al.  Stakeholder Analysis and Social Network Analysis in Natural Resource Management , 2009, Society & Natural Resources.

[8]  Nam C. Nguyen,et al.  Creating ‘learning laboratories’ for sustainable development in biospheres: A systems thinking approach , 2011 .

[9]  J. Habermas Moral Consciousness and Communicative Action , 1990 .

[10]  E. Bukusi,et al.  Use of personal digital assistants for data collection in a multi-site AIDS stigma study in rural south Nyanza, Kenya. , 2011, African health sciences.

[11]  J. Holden,et al.  If you have a hammer everything looks like a nail: traditional versus participatory model building , 2007 .

[12]  Kuishuang Feng,et al.  The evolution of global trade and impacts on countries' carbon trade imbalances , 2016, Soc. Networks.

[13]  W. Batchelder,et al.  Culture as Consensus: A Theory of Culture and Informant Accuracy , 1986 .

[14]  Fran Ackermann,et al.  Mixing OR methods in practice: Past, present and future directions , 2011, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[15]  George P. Richardson,et al.  Problems in causal loop diagrams revisited , 1997 .

[16]  Klaus Hubacek,et al.  ‘Who’s in the Network?’ When Stakeholders Influence Data Analysis , 2008 .

[17]  Michelle R. Guy,et al.  Twitter earthquake detection: earthquake monitoring in a social world , 2012 .

[18]  Philippe J. Giabbanelli,et al.  Should we simulate mental models to assess whether they agree? , 2018, SpringSim.

[19]  Nuno Videira,et al.  Using participatory system dynamics in environmental and sustainability dialogues , 2015 .

[20]  S. Arnstein,et al.  Ladder of Citizen Participation , 2020 .

[21]  Tessa Berg,et al.  Rich Pictures: Sustainable Development and Stakeholders – The Benefits of Content Analysis , 2016 .

[22]  Alex Smajgl,et al.  Water policy impact assessment – combining modelling techniques in the Great Barrier Reef region , 2009 .

[23]  Laura Schmitt Olabisi,et al.  Using participatory scenarios to stimulate social learning for collaborative sustainable development , 2012 .

[24]  Martin Davies Concept mapping, mind mapping and argument mapping: what are the differences and do they matter? , 2011 .

[25]  Mark Tomlinson,et al.  The use of mobile phones as a data collection tool: A report from a household survey in South Africa , 2009, BMC Medical Informatics Decis. Mak..

[26]  C. Prell,et al.  Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio-environmental modeling. , 2018, Ecological Applications.

[27]  Peter H Verburg,et al.  Continental-scale quantification of landscape values using social media data , 2016, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[28]  Cécile Barnaud,et al.  Equity, Power Games, and Legitimacy: Dilemmas of Participatory Natural Resource Management , 2013 .

[29]  Petr Matous,et al.  Exploring dynamic mechanisms of learning networks for resource conservation , 2015 .

[30]  W. Dare,et al.  Learning About Interdependencies and Dynamics , 2014 .

[31]  Cherdvong Saengsupavanich,et al.  Detached breakwaters: communities' preferences for sustainable coastal protection. , 2013, Journal of environmental management.

[32]  Shannon J. Lane,et al.  Bmc Medical Informatics and Decision Making a Review of Randomized Controlled Trials Comparing the Effectiveness of Hand Held Computers with Paper Methods for Data Collection , 2006 .

[33]  David C. Lane,et al.  Diagramming conventions in system dynamics , 2000, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[34]  Kasper Kok,et al.  Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for futures studies—A methodological assessment of concepts and methods , 2014 .

[35]  Serena H. Chen,et al.  Good practice in Bayesian network modelling , 2012, Environ. Model. Softw..

[36]  Alison Singer,et al.  Translating community narratives into semi-quantitative models to understand the dynamics of socio-environmental crises , 2017, Environ. Model. Softw..

[37]  Stuart Blythe,et al.  Modeling as a Tool for Cross-Disciplinary Communication in Solving Environmental Problems , 2014 .

[38]  H. Gupta,et al.  Decision Support Systems in Water Resources Planning and Management: Stakeholder Participation and the Sustainable Path to Science-Based Decision Making , 2011 .

[39]  Evon M. O. Abu-Taieh,et al.  Comparative Study , 2020, Definitions.

[40]  David B Nash Choosing the right tool. , 2007, Biotechnology healthcare.

[41]  R. Sadler,et al.  Elevated Blood Lead Levels in Children Associated With the Flint Drinking Water Crisis: A Spatial Analysis of Risk and Public Health Response. , 2016, American journal of public health.

[42]  Michael Paolisso Understanding culture and environment dynamics using cultural consensus analysis , 2015 .

[43]  Olivier Barreteau,et al.  Multi-agent systems and role games : collective learning processes for ecosystem management , 2002 .

[44]  Alexey A. Voinov,et al.  An overview of the model integration process: From pre-integration assessment to testing , 2017, Environ. Model. Softw..

[45]  Kevin J. Boyle,et al.  Valuing ecosystem services: toward better environmental decision-making , 2005 .

[46]  A. Howard A critical look at multiple criteria decision making techniques with reference to forestry applications , 1991 .

[47]  R. Chambers Participatory Mapping and Geographic Information Systems: Whose Map? Who is Empowered and Who Disempowered? Who Gains and Who Loses? , 2006, Electron. J. Inf. Syst. Dev. Ctries..

[48]  Toshiyuki Yasui,et al.  Managing Complex Issues through Evolutionary Learning Laboratories , 2013 .

[49]  A. Jonoski,et al.  Collaborative Modelling for Informed Decision Making and Inclusive Water Development , 2017, Water Resources Management.

[50]  Warren E. Walker,et al.  System Models for Policy Analysis , 2013 .

[51]  C. Hoch,et al.  How planners and stakeholders learn with visualization tools: using learning sciences methods to examine planning processes , 2017 .

[52]  Anil Graves,et al.  Who's in and why? A typology of stakeholder analysis methods for natural resource management. , 2009, Journal of environmental management.

[53]  Moira L. Zellner,et al.  Embracing Complexity and Uncertainty: The Potential of Agent-Based Modeling for Environmental Planning and Policy , 2008 .

[54]  Joseph H. A. Guillaume,et al.  Fit for purpose? Building and evaluating a fast, integrated model for exploring water policy pathways , 2014, Environ. Model. Softw..

[55]  Warren E. Walker,et al.  Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world , 2013 .

[56]  Eric Bonabeau,et al.  Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[57]  Olivier Barreteau,et al.  Our Companion Modelling Approach , 2003, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[58]  Uygar Özesmi,et al.  Ecological models based on people’s knowledge: a multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping approach , 2004 .

[59]  John Ward,et al.  Evaluating participatory research: Framework, methods and implementation results. , 2015, Journal of environmental management.

[60]  Leilah Lyons,et al.  Paper to parameters: designing tangible simulation input , 2010, UbiComp '10 Adjunct.

[61]  Steven A. Gray,et al.  Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as Representations of Mental Models and Group Beliefs , 2014, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Applied Sciences and Engineering.

[62]  Dawn Cassandra Parker,et al.  Spatial agent-based models for socio-ecological systems: Challenges and prospects , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[63]  Alexey Voinov,et al.  Systems Science and Modeling for Ecological Economics , 2008 .

[64]  C. Prell Social Network Analysis: History, Theory and Methodology , 2011 .

[65]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Preface , 2021 .

[66]  Min Chen,et al.  Virtual geographic environments in socio-environmental modeling: a fancy distraction or a key to communication? , 2018, Int. J. Digit. Earth.

[67]  Birgit Müller,et al.  Agent-Based Modelling of Social-Ecological Systems: Achievements, Challenges, and a Way Forward , 2017, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[68]  François Bousquet,et al.  Role-playing games for opening the black box of multi-agent systems: method and lessons of its application to Senegal River Valley irrigated systems , 2001, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[69]  Jonathan Rosenhead,et al.  Soft Systems Methodology in Action , 1991 .

[70]  Alexey Voinov,et al.  Landscape simulation modeling : a spatially explicit, dynamic approach , 2003 .

[71]  Muhammad Amer,et al.  A review of scenario planning , 2013 .

[72]  M. Batty,et al.  Modeling urban dynamics through GIS-based cellular automata , 1999 .

[73]  M. Janssen,et al.  Multi-Agent Systems for the Simulation of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: A Review , 2003 .

[74]  Pierre Lemarinier,et al.  Agent Based Modelling and Simulation tools: A review of the state-of-art software , 2017, Comput. Sci. Rev..

[75]  R. Sanchez,et al.  Choosing the Right Tool for the Job: A Framework to Compare the Effectiveness of Problem Structuring Methods in System Dynamics Modeling , 2012 .

[76]  Linda J. Cox,et al.  Mental Modeler: A Fuzzy-Logic Cognitive Mapping Modeling Tool for Adaptive Environmental Management , 2013, 2013 46th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[77]  Eelco van Beek,et al.  Collaborative modelling or participatory modelling? A framework for water resources management , 2017, Environ. Model. Softw..

[78]  R. Sieber Public Participation Geographic Information Systems: A Literature Review and Framework , 2006 .

[79]  Slobodan P. Simonovic,et al.  Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example , 2014, Environ. Model. Softw..

[80]  Anil Graves,et al.  Who ’ s in and why ? Stakeholder analysis as a prerequisite 1 for sustainable natural resource management 2 3 , 2008 .

[81]  Yang-Guo Zhao,et al.  Application of the analytic hierarchy process to a sustainability assessment of coastal beach exploitation: a case study of the wind power projects on the coastal beaches of Yancheng, China. , 2013, Journal of environmental management.

[82]  M. V. D. Belt,et al.  Mediated Modeling: A System Dynamics Approach To Environmental Consensus Building , 2004 .

[83]  Krystyna Anne Stave,et al.  Participatory system dynamics modeling for sustainable environmental management: Observations from four cases , 2010 .

[84]  François Bousquet,et al.  Modelling with stakeholders within a development project , 2010, Environ. Model. Softw..

[85]  Jarret M. Lafleur,et al.  Probabilistic AHP and TOPSIS for multi-attribute decision-making under uncertainty , 2011, 2011 Aerospace Conference.

[86]  Peng Wang,et al.  Recent developments in exponential random graph (p*) models for social networks , 2007, Soc. Networks.

[87]  Edo Abraham,et al.  A Graph-Theoretic Framework for Assessing the Resilience of Sectorised Water Distribution Networks , 2016, Water Resources Management.

[88]  P J Lewis,et al.  Rich picture building in the soft systems methodology , 1992 .

[89]  J. Novak The Theory Underlying Concept Maps and How To Construct Them , 2004 .

[90]  M. Goodchild Citizens as sensors: the world of volunteered geography , 2007 .

[91]  C. Eden,et al.  Making Strategy: The Journey of Strategic Management , 1998 .

[92]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[93]  Theodor J. Stewart,et al.  Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis , 2001 .

[94]  Michael D. Young Sustainable investment and resource use: equity, environmental integrity and economic efficiency. , 1992 .

[95]  Christophe Le Page,et al.  Models for Sharing Representations , 2014 .

[96]  A. Veldkamp,et al.  CLUE-CR: An integrated multi-scale model to simulate land use change scenarios in Costa Rica , 1996 .

[97]  Todd K. BenDor,et al.  A theory of spatial system archetypes , 2012 .

[98]  John Ward,et al.  Towards understanding participatory processes: Framework, application and results. , 2015, Journal of environmental management.

[99]  Scott Campbell,et al.  Planning for deep-rooted problems: What can we learn from aligning complex systems and wicked problems? , 2015 .

[100]  David C. Lane,et al.  The emergence and use of diagramming in system dynamics: a critical account , 2008 .

[101]  Slobodan P. Simonovic,et al.  Spatial System Dynamics: New Approach for Simulation of Water Resources Systems , 2004 .

[102]  Carl D. Shapiro,et al.  From data to decisions: Processing information, biases, and beliefs for improved management of natural resources and environments , 2017 .

[103]  Alexander Smajgl Simulating Sustainability: Guiding Principles to Ensure Policy Impact , 2015, PAAMS.

[104]  P. Tadikamalla,et al.  The Analytic Hierarchy Process in an uncertain environment: A simulation approach , 1996 .

[105]  Andrew J. Higgins,et al.  A comparison of multiple criteria analysis techniques for water resource management , 2008, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[106]  Nagesh Kolagani,et al.  A participatory framework for developing public participation GIS solutions to improve resource management systems , 2017, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[107]  Marjolijn Haasnoot,et al.  What it took to catalyse uptake of dynamic adaptive pathways planning to address climate change uncertainty , 2017 .

[108]  S. Greco,et al.  Decision Rule Approach , 2005 .

[109]  Ayalew Kassahun,et al.  Quality assurance in model based water management - review of existing practice and outline of new approaches , 2005, Environ. Model. Softw..

[110]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  Bayesian Networks and participatory modelling in water resource management , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[111]  Jose L. Salmeron,et al.  A Review of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Research During the Last Decade , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems.

[112]  Alex Smajgl,et al.  A framework to bridge science and policy in complex decision making arenas , 2013 .

[113]  Nuno Videira,et al.  Participatory systems mapping for sustainable consumption: Discussion of a method promoting systemic insights , 2014 .

[114]  D. D. Toit,et al.  ARDI: a co-construction method for participatory modelling in natural resources management , 2011 .

[115]  Jac A. M. Vennix,et al.  Group model-building: tackling messy problems , 1999 .

[116]  Tom A. B. Snijders,et al.  Introduction to stochastic actor-based models for network dynamics , 2010, Soc. Networks.

[117]  Mark Bowler,et al.  Effects of selective logging on large mammal populations in a remote indigenous territory in the northern Peruvian Amazon , 2015 .

[118]  G. Robins,et al.  Theorizing benefits and constraints in collaborative environmental governance : a transdisciplinary social-ecological network approach for empirical investigations , 2016 .

[119]  Igor Linkov,et al.  Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends. , 2011, The Science of the total environment.

[120]  Samaneh Shokravi,et al.  Values in socio-environmental modelling: Persuasion for action or excuse for inaction , 2014, Environ. Model. Softw..

[121]  H. Schröder,et al.  Knowledge integration : the practice of knowledge management in small and medium enterprises , 2006 .

[122]  Robert Costanza,et al.  Sustainable investment and resource use: Equity, environmental integrity and economic efficiency , 1993 .

[123]  François Bousquet,et al.  Cormas: An Agent-Based Simulation Platform for Coupling Human Decisions with Computerized Dynamics , 2016 .

[124]  Suzanne A. Pierce,et al.  Modelling with stakeholders e Next generation , 2015 .

[125]  M. Rounsevell,et al.  Scenario-based studies of future land use in Europe , 2006 .

[126]  Jerald D. Kralik,et al.  When Less Is More: Evolutionary Origins of the Affect Heuristic , 2012, PloS one.

[127]  J. Gupta,et al.  The split ladder of participation: A diagnostic, strategic, and evaluation tool to assess when participation is necessary , 2015 .

[128]  Mary C. Hill,et al.  Integrated environmental modeling: A vision and roadmap for the future , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[129]  Leonid Perlovsky,et al.  Simplifying heuristics versus careful thinking: Scientific analysis of millennial spiritual issues , 2008 .

[130]  Farhana Sultana,et al.  Participatory Ethics: Politics, Practices, Institutions , 2007 .

[131]  Stephen Morse,et al.  Rich pictures: a means to explore the ‘sustainable mind’? , 2013 .

[132]  Philippe J. Giabbanelli,et al.  Combining fuzzy cognitive maps with agent-based modeling: Frameworks and pitfalls of a powerful hybrid modeling approach to understand human-environment interactions , 2017, Environ. Model. Softw..

[133]  Boris T. van Zanten,et al.  Mapping Landscape Values Using Social Media , 2016 .

[134]  C. S. Holling Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management , 2005 .

[135]  Peter S. Hovmand,et al.  Community Based System Dynamics , 2013 .

[136]  John Bromley,et al.  Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain. , 2013, Journal of environmental management.

[137]  I. Gren Pricing Nature, Cost--Benefit Analysis and Environmental Policy , 2010 .

[138]  François Bousquet,et al.  Using Self-Designed Role-Playing Games and a Multi-Agent System to Empower a Local Decision-Making Process for Land Use Management: The SelfCormas Experiment in Senegal , 2003, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[139]  Michael Doyle,et al.  Facilitator's Guide to Participatory Decision-Making , 1998 .

[140]  Jungho Nam,et al.  A resilience-based approach for comparing expert preferences across two large-scale coastal management programs. , 2011, Journal of environmental management.

[141]  E. Rosenbloom A probabilistic interpretation of the final rankings in AHP , 1997 .

[142]  M. Haklay How Good is Volunteered Geographical Information? A Comparative Study of OpenStreetMap and Ordnance Survey Datasets , 2010 .

[143]  Robert Richbourg,et al.  Modeling the Environment , 2015 .

[144]  Sue Holwell,et al.  Information, Systems and Information Systems: Making Sense of the Field , 1998 .

[145]  François Bousquet,et al.  Modelling with stakeholders , 2010, Environ. Model. Softw..

[146]  M. Etienne Companion Modelling: A Participatory Approach to Support Sustainable Development , 2010 .

[147]  S. Weller Cultural Consensus Theory: Applications and Frequently Asked Questions , 2007 .

[148]  Richard J. Ormerod,et al.  The design of organisational intervention: Choosing the approach , 1997 .

[149]  François Bousquet,et al.  A novel mediating participatory modelling: the self-design process to accompany collective decision making , 2002 .

[150]  Varkki George Pallathucheril,et al.  The land-use evolution and impact assessment model: A comprehensive urban planning support system , 2009 .

[151]  Nathaniel D Osgood,et al.  Selecting a dynamic simulation modeling method for health care delivery research-part 2: report of the ISPOR Dynamic Simulation Modeling Emerging Good Practices Task Force. , 2015, Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research.

[152]  Björn Kraus,et al.  Introducing a Model for Analyzing the Possibilities of Power, Help and Control , 2014 .

[153]  T. Cain The Sage handbook of action research: participative inquiry and practice , 2014 .

[154]  Leilah Lyons,et al.  Evaluating the embodiment benefits of a paper-based tui for educational simulations , 2011, CHI EA '11.

[155]  François Bousquet,et al.  Multi-agent simulations and ecosystem management: a review , 2004 .

[156]  L. An,et al.  Modeling human decisions in coupled human and natural systems : Review of agent-based models , 2012 .

[157]  R. Chambers From PRA to PLA and pluralism: practice and theory , 2007 .

[158]  Herbert C. Kelman,et al.  Ethical issues in different social science methods , 1982 .

[159]  Fran Ackermann,et al.  Cognitive mapping expert views for policy analysis in the public sector , 2004, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[160]  John Mingers,et al.  Variety is the spice of life: combining soft and hard OR/MS methods , 2000 .

[161]  Brent J. Hecht,et al.  Turkers, Scholars, "Arafat" and "Peace": Cultural Communities and Algorithmic Gold Standards , 2015, CSCW.

[162]  ConstructionismD . Raskin Constructivism in Psychology: Personal Construct Psychology, Radical Constructivism, and Social , 2002 .

[163]  Alexander Smajgl,et al.  Challenging beliefs through multi-level participatory modelling in Indonesia , 2010, Environ. Model. Softw..