Monte Carlo 방법을 이용한 Model F 증기발생기 전열관 AVB 마모의 성장 및 생성에 대한 확률론적 예측

The growth of AVB wear in Model F steam generator tubes is predicted using the Monte Carlo Method and statistical approaches. The statistical parameters that represent the characteristics of wear growth and wear initiation are derived from in-service inspection (ISI) non-destructive evaluation (NDE) data. Based on the statistical approaches, wear growth model are proposed and applied to predict wear distribution at the end of cycle (EOC). Probabilistic distributions of the number of wear flaws and maximum wear depth at EOC are obtained from the analysis. Comparing the predicted EOC wear flaw data with the known EOC data the usefulness of the proposed method is examined and satisfactory results are obtained.