Traitement et analyse de séries chronologiques continues de turbidité pour la formulation et le test de modèles des rejets urbains par temps de pluie

Des approches parcimonieuses sont aujourd'hui developpees pour la modelisation de la qualite des rejets urbains par temps de pluie, e adequation avec la quantite de donnees disponibles. De plus, l'analyse des incertitudes apparait comme un outil incontournable pour le test des modeles. Parallelement, le developpement des techniques de mesure en continu en reseau, spectrometrie et turbidite, permet l'obtention de donnees continues de flux de matieres en suspension et de demande chimique en oxygene en grand nombre, apportant une information riche. Ce travail constitue une des premieres etudes en hydrologie urbaine basee sur l'exploitation d'une grande base de donnees acquises par la mesure de la turbidite. Des mesures sur la periode 2004-2008 ont ete exploitees sur deux sites. Apres traitement et validation, 263 et 239 evenements pluvieux ont ete retenus. L'analyse des donnees a permis la formulation d'hypotheses sur la generation des flux pour la proposition de modeles adaptes. Le test de l'approche multi-regression a confirme la necessite de construire des modeles locaux, bases sur une analyse approfondie des donnees. Les meilleurs modeles obtenus sont ceux pour la masse evenementielle qui parviennent a reproduire en tendance la variabilite des observations. La methode bayesienne a ete utilisee pour le test d'un modele d'Accumulation-Erosion-Transfert simple a l'echelle du bassin versant. Les premiers resultats mettent e defaut la structure du modele teste. Cependant ces premiers tests ont demontre l'efficacite de la procedure d'analyse bayesienne, dont l'application du principe d'apprentissage permet d'ameliorer de maniere significative les structures des modeles.

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