When will Bangladesh reach replacement-level fertility? The role of education and family planning services.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the possibility of further fertility decline in Bangladesh with special attention to the role that might be played by further improvements in women’s education and family planning services. In particular we attempt to estimate how long and under what conditions it should take for Bangladesh to reach replacement-level fertility (2.1 children per woman). We begin with a brief review of the programmatic development policy evolution and social and economic transformation in Bangladesh that might have influenced couples’ family-building strategies. We then describe the data and methods that we use. Next we attempt to project a time frame of when fertility may reach the replacement level. Finally we discuss possible future challenges to further fertility decline. The medium-variant scenario of the United Nations projection indicates that Bangladesh will achieve replacement-level fertility around 2025. We assess whether our analysis yields a similar conclusion. (excerpt)