Modeling Risky Driver Behavior Under the Influence of Flashing Green Signal with Vehicle Trajectory Data

In China, a 3-s flashing green (FG) indication followed by a 3-s yellow (Y) indication is commonly applied to end the green phase at signalized intersections regardless of speed limits. Past research has indicated that the FG may bring more uncertainty and dynamics to drivers’ stop–go decisions at the end of the green phase, particularly at high-speed intersections. Hence, the objective of this study was to propose a probabilistic model for interpreting drivers’ dynamic decision-making processes in response to the combination of FG and Y at rural high-speed intersections, which could help quantitatively analyze the safety effects of FG. The inputs of the proposed model included mainly the acceleration and deceleration rate and the perception-and-reaction time. The outputs were the frequencies of risky behavior, including abrupt stop and aggressive pass on the basis of the cycle. The trajectories of 1,186 vehicles, collected at three rural high-speed intersections in Shanghai, China, with a speed limit of 80 km/h were used for the uncertainty analysis of input variables and model validation. On the basis of the proposed model, three typical scenarios of phase transition periods—3-s FG + 3-s Y, 0-s FG + 5-s Y, and 0-s FG + 3-s Y—were valuated. Results showed that the proposed model was capable of producing an average error of less than 10%. In addition, the scenario of 0-s FG + 5-s Y performed best in reducing risky behavior. It is recommended that a 5-s Y be implemented for high-speed intersections when most of the traffic consists of passenger cars.