An Analysis of State Vector Prediction Accuracy

Modern precise navigation services are creating increased applications for numerically generated state vectors for satellite operations. Traditional radar and optical techniques can achieve modest accuracy in orbit determination, but on-board GPS satellite receivers are changing the routine accuracy available. Operational requirements usually involve future locations, rather than past locations derived from Orbit Determination (OD) techniques. This paper compares propagation of various satellite initial state vectors to independently produced Precision Orbit Ephemerides (POE’s). The initial state of each satellite is varied to reflect expected orbital accuracy achievable through existing OD techniques. Satellite ephemerides are compared to known POE’s, and to precise reference ephemerides generated by state-of-the-art orbit determination techniques.