Combined wind power prediction method suitable for distributed wind power plant
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The invention provides a combined wind power prediction method suitable for a distributed wind power plant. The method comprises the following steps: step 1, acquiring data and pre-processing; step 2, utilizing a training sample set and a prediction sample set which are normalized to build a wind speed prediction model based on a radial basis function neural network and predict the wind speed and variation trend of distribution fans at the next moment; step 3, building a distributed wind power plant area CFD (computational fluid dynamics) model and externally deducing the prediction wind speed of each fan in the plant area according to factors such as the terrain, coarseness and wake current influence of a distributed wind field; step 4, acquiring the power data of an SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system fan of the distributed wind field; and step 5, adopting correlation coefficients. The invention firstly provides a double-layer combined neural network to respectively predict the wind speed and power. Models are respectively built through adopting appropriate efficient neural network types, and improved particle swarm optimization with ideas of 'improvement', 'variation' and 'elimination' is additionally added to optimize the neural network, so that the speed and precision of modeling can be effectively improved, and the decoupling between wind speed and power is realized.