Self-Optimization System Dynamics Simulation of Real-Time Short Term Cascade Hydropower System Considering Uncertainties

Uncertainties of inflow and temporary power instructions always make it intractable to make decisions in real-time short term hydropower operation. To deal with the problems caused by uncertainties and realize self-optimization for real-time short term hydropower operation, relevant measurement indexes are firstly discussed and deduced. Then the self-optimization system dynamics simulation of real-time short term cascade hydropower system is developed by taking advantages of feedback loops in system dynamics simulation. Finally, the proposed self-optimization system dynamics simulation model is illustrated in Shuibuya-Geheyan-Gaobazhou cascade hydropower system on Qing River in China. Three typical scenarios are analyzed and different dispatching strategies are simulated in feedback loops. The results indicate that system dynamics simulation is an effective way to simulate a complex cascade hydropower system with feedback and causal loops. Moreover, it makes a contribution to making up a daily schedule and making decisions in real-time short time operation. Also, operation rules can be extracted for the cascade dispatching center by SD simulation.

[1]  Slobodan P. Simonovic,et al.  Risk-based parameter selection for short-term reservoir operation , 1992 .

[2]  Jan H. Kwakkel,et al.  Using System Dynamics for Grand Challenges: The ESDMA Approach , 2015 .

[3]  Stein-Erik Fleten,et al.  Short-term hydropower production planning by stochastic programming , 2008, Comput. Oper. Res..

[4]  Ximing Cai,et al.  Effect of streamflow forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation , 2010 .

[5]  Chuanwen Jiang,et al.  Short-Term Operation Model and Risk Management for Wind Power Penetrated System in Electricity Market , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[6]  William W.-G. Yeh,et al.  Reservoir Management and Operations Models: A State‐of‐the‐Art Review , 1985 .

[7]  M. Qiang,et al.  Risk management of hydropower development in China , 2013 .

[8]  Hiroshi Ishidaira,et al.  Sustainability Analysis for Yellow River Water Resources Using the System Dynamics Approach , 2002 .

[9]  Slobodan P Simonovic,et al.  World water dynamics: global modeling of water resources. , 2002, Journal of environmental management.

[10]  Wei Meng,et al.  Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity for Sustainable Development Based on a System Dynamics Model: A Case Study of Tieling City, China , 2015, Water Resources Management.

[11]  David C. Lane,et al.  Invited Review and Reappraisal Industrial Dynamics. , 1997 .

[12]  Chao Ma,et al.  Short-term optimal operation of Three-gorge and Gezhouba cascade hydropower stations in non-flood season with operation rules from data mining , 2013 .

[13]  Mahdi Zarghami,et al.  Simulating hedging rules for effective reservoir operation by using system dynamics: a case study of Dez Reservoir, Iran , 2013 .

[14]  Yu Xing-jie.  Risk analysis for reservoir flood forecast operation based on flood forecast information , 2008 .

[15]  Pan Liu,et al.  Joint operation and dynamic control of flood limiting water levels for mixed cascade reservoir systems , 2014 .

[16]  Rodrigo Maia,et al.  Assessment of Ecological Risk Based on Projected Hydrological Alteration , 2016, Environmental Processes.

[17]  Liping Wang,et al.  Self-Optimization Simulation Model of Short-Term Cascaded Hydroelectric System Dispatching Based on the Daily Load Curve , 2013, Water Resources Management.

[18]  Chao Wang,et al.  Short-term joint optimization of cascade hydropower stations on daily power load curve , 2016, 2016 IEEE International Conference on Knowledge Engineering and Applications (ICKEA).

[19]  R. Frowd,et al.  A coordinated approach for real-time short term hydro scheduling , 1996 .

[20]  Slobodan P. Simonovic,et al.  Short-Term Operation Model for Coupled Hydropower Reservoirs , 2000 .

[21]  J. Forrester.  Industrial Dynamics: A Major Breakthrough for Decision Makers , 2012 .

[22]  Li Mo,et al.  Short-term hydro generation scheduling of Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba cascade hydropower stations using improved binary-real coded bee colony optimization algorithm , 2015 .

[23]  John D. Sterman,et al.  Business dynamics : systems thinking and modelling for acomplex world , 2002 .

[24]  O. Bozorg Haddad,et al.  Real-Time Operation of Reservoir System by Genetic Programming , 2012, Water Resources Management.

[25]  Tarkan Erdik,et al.  Theoretical derivation of wind power probability distribution function and applications , 2012 .

[26]  Ningning Liu,et al.  Sustainable utilization of water resources in China: A system dynamics model , 2017 .

[27]  J. Forrester.  Industrial Dynamics , 1997 .