Equity and efficiency in climate change negotiations : a scenario for world emission entitlements by 2030

The Kyoto Protocol will establish a distribution of emission permits for the 2008-2012 period ,among the Annex B Parties that will have ratified it. But as emissions expected from the developing countries in the forthcoming decades will considerably increase, it is necessary for the latter to also make some commitment to limit their emissions. Our paper enhances some methodological aspects both on fair ways of bringing developing countries into a long-term world program for the limitation of emission growth, and on the contribution of emission trading to improving economic efficiency. We first review the main differentiation proposals and the equity principles they are based on. As no differentiation rule and no single principle of justice have been found that might receive a consensus among all the countries, we then present a simple, pragmatic scenario for stabilizing CO2 emissions by 2030, that could lead to a reduction in global inequality, a relative convergence of country entitlements and a greater respect for democratic equality. Furthermore, we show that the implementation of an international emission trading system would re-establish ex post the efficiency which a priori does not exist in the initial allocation of rights. The utilitarian concept of justice would therefore also be respected. We wish to thank N. Kouvaritakis (IPTS) for his contribution to the first draft of the Scenario 2030 and O. Godard for helpful comments.