Decision Making Under Uncertainty When Preference Information Is Incomplete

We consider the problem of optimal decision making under uncertainty but assume that the decision maker's utility function is not completely known. Instead, we consider all the utilities that meet some criteria, such as preferring certain lotteries over other lotteries and being risk averse, S-shaped, or prudent. These criteria extend the ones used in the first-and second-order stochastic dominance framework. We then give tractable formulations for such decision-making problems. We formulate them as robust utility maximization problems, as optimization problems with stochastic dominance constraints, and as robust certainty equivalent maximization problems. We use a portfolio allocation problem to illustrate our results. This paper was accepted by Dimitris Bertsimas, optimization.

[1]  M. Teboulle,et al.  AN OLD‐NEW CONCEPT OF CONVEX RISK MEASURES: THE OPTIMIZED CERTAINTY EQUIVALENT , 2007 .

[2]  Jack A. Meyer,et al.  Choice among distributions , 1977 .

[3]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect theory: analysis of decision under risk , 1979 .

[4]  Włodzimierz Ogryczak,et al.  On Stochastic Dominance and Mean-Semideviation Models , 1997 .

[5]  Arkadi Nemirovski,et al.  Robust Convex Optimization , 1998, Math. Oper. Res..

[6]  Louis Eeckhoudt,et al.  Putting risk in its proper place , 2006 .

[7]  John E. Grable,et al.  Financial risk tolerance revisited: the development of a risk assessment instrument* , 1999 .

[8]  Dimitris Bertsimas,et al.  Learning Preferences Under Noise and Loss Aversion: An Optimization Approach , 2013, Oper. Res..

[9]  Fabio Maccheroni,et al.  Expected utility theory without the completeness axiom , 2004, J. Econ. Theory.

[10]  Robert T. Clemen,et al.  Making Hard Decisions with Decisiontools Suite , 2000 .

[11]  Miles S. Kimball Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large , 1989 .

[12]  H. Leland. Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving , 1968 .

[13]  K. Arrow Rational Choice Functions and Orderings1 , 1959 .

[14]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk — Source link , 2007 .

[15]  R. Aumann UTILITY THEORY WITHOUT THE COMPLETENESS AXIOM , 1962 .

[16]  Katya Scheinberg,et al.  Introduction to derivative-free optimization , 2010, Math. Comput..

[17]  M. Degroot,et al.  Measuring utility by a single-response sequential method. , 1964, Behavioral science.

[18]  Oriol Carbonell-Nicolau Games and Economic Behavior , 2011 .

[19]  Darinka Dentcheva,et al.  Optimization with Stochastic Dominance Constraints , 2003, SIAM J. Optim..

[20]  Agnar Sandmo,et al.  The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions , 1970 .

[21]  Craig Boutilier,et al.  Constraint-based optimization and utility elicitation using the minimax decision criterion , 2006, Artif. Intell..

[22]  Wlodzimierz Ogryczak,et al.  On consistency of stochastic dominance and mean–semideviation models , 2001, Math. Program..

[23]  Moshe Leshno,et al.  Preferred by "All" and Preferred by "Most" Decision Makers: Almost Stochastic Dominance , 2002, Manag. Sci..

[24]  J. Neumann,et al.  Theory of games and economic behavior , 1945, 100 Years of Math Milestones.

[25]  Yinyu Ye,et al.  Distributionally Robust Optimization Under Moment Uncertainty with Application to Data-Driven Problems , 2010, Oper. Res..

[26]  A. Ruszczynski,et al.  Portfolio optimization with stochastic dominance constraints , 2006 .

[27]  Dan W. Brockt,et al.  The Theory of Justice , 2017 .

[28]  Andrzej Ruszczynski,et al.  Tractable Almost Stochastic Dominance , 2012, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[29]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[30]  Daphne Koller,et al.  Making Rational Decisions Using Adaptive Utility Elicitation , 2000, AAAI/IAAI.