论文信息 - Probabilities are useful to quantify expert judgments

Probabilities are useful to quantify expert judgments

Abstract The role of explicitly quantifying expert judgment for use in examining complex technical and engineering problems is placed in perspective. We discuss how expert judgments are usually used in analyzing technical problems, how the use of expert judgement should be improved, and how to interpret expert opinion in analysis. The advantages of quantifying expert judgments and of using probabilities for this quantification are stressed.

Detlof von Winterfeldt | L Keeney Ralph

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