Proxy models for caprock pressure and temperature dynamics during steam-assisted gravity drainage process

Abstract The usage of first principles-based dynamic models for advanced control, monitoring and optimization of petroleum reservoirs is constrained by the large scale nature of the models. The parametric uncertainty makes the process even more challenging; hence, development of proxy models is an attractive proposition. In this work, proxy models are developed from spatio-temporal data of pressure and temperature in the caprock during steam-assisted gravity drainage operation. The first proxy model addresses the issue of reduced-order dynamic modelling of the caprock pressure and temperature fields based on proper orthogonal decomposition and system identification using data from the first principles model. The second proxy model takes the first step towards dynamic analysis of factor of safety in reservoir management by modelling the evolution of clusters of high, medium and low pressure regions using graph theory and subspace modelling. System theoretic properties of these proxy models and their practical relevance is also analysed.

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