Trade policies and development in Africa: The Doha Development Agenda, the EU EPAs and ECOWAS

This paper uses applied general equilibrium modelling under GTAP with the standard closure assumptions and labour market modifications to examine the likely outcome of two trade policy scenarios EPA and DDA and a third policy option-technological change in the ECOWAS region of Sub Saharan Africa. Simulation results show that with the exception of the EU and Ghana, the rest of ECOWAS suffers GDP and welfare losses arising mainly from adverse terms of trade effects of the EPAs. The DDA equally makes the ECOWAS region worse off in terms of GDP and welfare. We notice however that the ECOWAS gains substantially from improvements in technology, with the gains being bigger when technological changes have spillover effects. We therefore conclude that the ECOWAS would benefit more from trade policies aimed at shifting the technological base. JEL codes: F15, D61, O3 Key words: applied general equilibrium, trade, development, welfare, technology, ECOWAS