How to Lose Money in Derivatives: Examples from Hedge Funds and Bank Trading Departments

What makes futures hedge funds fail? The common ingredient is over betting and not being diversified in some bad scenarios that can lead to disaster. Once troubles arise, it is difficult to take the necessary actions that eliminate the problem. Moreover, many hedge fund operators tend not to make decisions to minimize losses but rather tend to bet more doubling up hoping to exit the problem with a profit. Incentives, including large fees on gains and minimal penalties for losses, push managers into such risky and reckless behavior. We discuss some specific ways losses occur. To illustrate, we discuss the specific cases of Long Term Capital Management, Niederhoffer’s hedge fund, Amaranth and Societe Generale. In some cases, the failures lead to contagion in other hedge funds and financial institutions. We also list other hedge fund and bank trading failures with brief comments on them.

[1]  William T. Ziemba,et al.  The Russell-Yasuda Kasai, InnoALM and related models for pensions, insurance companies and high net worth individuals , 2008 .

[2]  W. Ziemba Response to Paul a Samuelson Letters and Papers on the Kelly Capital Growth Investment Strategy , 2012 .

[3]  William N. Goetzmann,et al.  High-Water Marks and Hedge Fund Management Contracts , 2001 .

[4]  May,et al.  Stock market crashes , 2004 .

[5]  J. Galbraith A Short History of Financial Euphoria , 1993 .

[6]  J. Lewellen The Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns , 2014 .

[7]  Nicholas Dunbar Inventing Money: The Story of Long-Term Capital Management and the Legends Behind It , 1999 .

[8]  John Parsons,et al.  MATURITY STRUCTURE OF A HEDGE MATTERS: LESSONS FROM THE METALLGESELLSCHAFT DEBACLE , 1995 .

[9]  Franklin R. Edward Hedge Funds and the Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management , 1999 .

[10]  R. H. Parker,et al.  This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly , 2010 .

[11]  Incentives and Risk Taking in Hedge Funds , 2004 .

[12]  Philippe Jorion Value at risk: the new benchmark for controlling market risk , 1996 .

[13]  Philippe Jorion Lessons from the Orange County Bankruptcy , 1997 .

[14]  ShefrinHersh How Psychological Pitfalls Generated the Global Financial Crisis , 2010 .

[15]  William T. Ziemba,et al.  The case for convex risk measures and scenario-dependent correlation matrices to replace VaR, C-VaR and covariance simulations for safer risk control of portfolios , 2013 .

[16]  Rajna Gibson,et al.  Model risk : concepts, calibration and pricing , 2000 .

[17]  Christopher L. Culp,et al.  METALLGESELLSCHAFT AND THE ECONOMICS OF SYNTHETIC STORAGE , 1995 .

[18]  Gerardo Reyes,et al.  Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance , 2012 .

[19]  Stephen Figlewski How to Lose Money in Derivatives , 1994 .

[20]  The collapse of Metallgesellschaft: Unhedgeable risks, poor hedging strategy, or just bad luck? , 1995 .

[21]  C. Kindleberger MANIAS, PANICS, AND CRASHES , 1996 .

[22]  Ronald J. Lanstein,et al.  Persuasive evidence of market inefficiency , 1985 .

[23]  J. Haw,et al.  Risk arbitrage in the Nikkei put warrant market , 2012 .

[24]  Philippe Jorion,et al.  Risk Management Lessons from Long-Term Capital Management , 1999 .

[25]  T ZiembaWilliam,et al.  The Stochastic Programming Approach to Asset, Liability, and Wealth Management , 2006 .

[26]  William T. Ziemba,et al.  The innovest Austrian pension fund planning model InnoALM , 2013 .

[27]  Marcus Schulmerich,et al.  Stock Market Crashes , 2015 .

[28]  Christopher L. Culp,et al.  HEDGING IN THE THEORY OF CORPORATE FINANCE: A REPLY TO OUR CRITICS , 1995 .

[29]  William K. Sjostrom The AIG Bailout , 2009 .

[30]  W. Ziemba,et al.  The Effect of Errors in Means, Variances, and Covariances on Optimal Portfolio Choice , 1993 .

[31]  W. Ziemba,et al.  Stock market crashes in 2007–2009: were we able to predict them? , 2011 .

[32]  Michael Sexton The Great Crash , 2006 .